With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. That’s why we need MLB DFS pivots.
The goal in this breakdown is to find which pitchers can give lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being undrowned across the field. Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential.
Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find the best MLB DFS pivots for tonight.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: Merrill Kelly & More (April 15)
Merrill Kelly ($9,400)
Kelly enters tonight’s matchup versus the Cubs as a -145 favorite at home, which is important considering his home/away splits. Starting off with his strikeout percentage, Kelly has a 24.3% strikeout rate for his career when pitching at home, compared to his 19.6% strikeout rate when pitching on the road, a 4.7%-point difference. This trend continues to be true in three starts this season, two of them being at home, with Kelly having a home/away strikeout percentage split of 25%/16.7% — an 8.3-point differential.
Looking at Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, Kelly has all the makings of a great GPP pitcher, projecting to pull 12.5% ownership with an 18% chance at being a top-2 pitcher while being the second-best-leveraged pitcher at 5.6%. With Kelly having the advantage of some home cooking, he is in a prime spot to become one of the highest-scoring pitchers tonight.
Luis Gil ($7,400)
Gil has always been a huge strikeout guy, but in two starts this season, he has a strikeout rate of 36.8% and at least strikeouts in both games. Gil is currently projected for 10% ownership and a 12.6% chance at being a top-2 pitcher, fifth highest in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. Gil is going under the radar tonight, as this slate has a plethora of pitchers in the $8,000 range, with arms like George Kirby at $8,900 and Sonny Gray at $8,500 both projecting to pull more than 20% ownership.
One spot we do have to worry about with Gil is his alarming 18.4% walk rate, sixth th highest among starters. If he can manage to keep that percentage down tonight, his strikeout ability gives him the opportunity to become a very interesting GPP pivot off of the popular $8,000 pitchers.
Get started finding the best MLB DFS pivots by using Stokastic tools today! Check out all we have to offer here!
