With DraftKings having two roster spots for pitchers, it creates an opportunity to take a stand in a very limited player pool. To play it safe, the majority of users like to roster the chalkiest pitchers in hopes of their bats being the main focal point of their lineup. While in theory it is a great strategy, it limits a lineup’s ability to stand out from the rest and ultimately land in the top 5 of a large-field GPP. Our goal in this breakdown is find which MLB DFS pivots at pitcher can give our lineups the opportunity to return massive ROI while being very undrowned across the field.
Using Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool, we are able to determine the pitchers that are expected to be chalk, along with the pitchers that are projected for high leverage in contests. The correlation of high leverage but low ownership is a crucial piece to unlocking a lineup’s potential. Let’s dive into which pitchers stand out in both of these categories to find our favorite MLB DFS pivots for tonight.
Best MLB DFS Pivots Today: Kutter Crawford & More (April 5)
MLB DFS Pivot: Logan Gilbert ($9,600)
Gilbert is currently projected for only 4.7% ownership while being the highest-rated pitcher for leverage at 11% — the next-closest pitcher is at 5.6%. His low ownership is due to the fact that this slate features arms like Spencer Strider at $11,000, Aaron Nola at $9,000 and Freddy Peralta at $9,300, whom Gilbert will be facing tonight.
What makes Logan a solid pivot option is the similarity in price tag and matchup in comparison to a 34.5% Peralta. Both pitchers are projected to allow less than 2.4 runs, while both project to record six-plus strikeouts tonight in six-plus innings. One could argue that Peralta has the tougher matchup, with the Mariners having multiple power threats spread throughout the lineup.
This pivot has many paths to success tonight like Peralta giving up three-plus runs while getting knocked around for a couple hits. Gilbert could go 6.2 innings, only allowing one run on one hit while still striking out seven batters, ultimately making this pivot stand out big time. Even in the scenario that Peralta pitches a good game, Gilbert’s soft matchup against the Brewers is still a spot where he can match Peralta’s score or even outscore him while only costing $300 more. This is a very low-risk pivot that can provide a massive edge if the field is going to be so heavy on Peralta.
MLB DFS Pivot: Kutter Crawford ($8,400)
If this slate didn’t have elite spend-up options, it is very likely that Crawford would be drawing more than his 7.9% ownership for tonight. But hey, if my aunt had a … you get the point.
I love the idea of getting very overweight on Crawford versus the Angels in a pitcher-friendly park with pitcher-friendly weather. It is forecasted to be in the low 50s by the time of first pitch and expected to get cooler throughout the night as the sun sets.
The Angels are coming off a series sweep against the Marlins where their offense looked very respectable, averaging over runs through three games. There is one factor that makes me not believe this trend will carry on, and it is the fact that it came against the Marlins. Crawford had a great first start against the Mariners, going six innings, allowing three hits, walking zero and striking out seven. There are a few other pitchers in the $8,000 range that are projected for over 20% ownership off of which Crawford could be a pivot. Brady Singer at $8,700 is projected for 25% ownership against the White Sox, and Hunter Greene at $8,300 is projected for 20% ownership against the Mets.
Finding ourselves in a similar spot as we did with Gilbert, Crawford’s low ownership and great matchup provides plenty of leverage against a field that might be overlooking him in this spot.
Get started finding the best MLB DFS pivots by using Stokastic tools today! Check out all we have to offer here!
