MLB DFS Picks, Spotlight Pitchers & Top Stacks: The Twinning Strategy! (Sept. 24)

Tuesday keeps the week chugging along with a 10-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Today we’re exploring the MLB DFS projections with Stokastic’s industry-leading tools to uncover how to build MLB DFS stacks, find top pitchers and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Bailey Ober and Framber Valdez are rising above the fray for the pitching options tonight, while Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool likes the Minnesota Twins and the New York Yankees, along with the Coors Field Extravaganza, as key MLB DFS picks.

MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 24

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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers

Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Bailey Ober (MIN vs. MIA)

Twins vs. Marlins – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$10,300 at FanDuel
$47 at Yahoo

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers tool likes that the Twins are fighting for a playoff spot, in front of the Minnesota faithful, against a subpar opponent.

The Twinkies have squandered their cushion in the playoff standings and now trail Kansas City and Detroit by a game in the race for the Wild Card tickets. Over his last 16 games RHP Bailey Ober had a nine-run meltdown against Atlanta and he gave up five “Ernies” two starts ago against Cincinnati.

In the other 14 games, he allowed three or fewer runs, on his way to a 7-3 record, 3.00 ERA, 3.43 FIP and 3.54 xFIP, accompanied by 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings.

Miami has been a little below league average, scoring exactly four runs per game since the All-Star Break. In the last 13 games, the Marlins have scored more than four runs only twice. The projected lineup has three batsmen who have struck out less than 17% of the time against right-handed pitching, and four are striking out 26% or more of the time. That gives Ober plenty of targets for strikeouts and opportunities to generate fantasy goodness.

Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Framber Valdez (HOU vs. SEA)

Astros vs. Mariners – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$10,000 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo

Seattle continues to hang on to postseason aspirations, moving up from 6% to a 12% chance after winning last night. This is a mirage and likely to end in heartbreak as the Mariners are half a game behind the Twins and 1.5 in back of the Tigers and Royals.

Since the All-Star Break, Seattle has the seventh-highest strikeout rate in the league while still sitting atop that category for the full season.

The M’s have scored the fourth most runs in the league over the last 30 days with everyone finally healthy, but this should not dissuade anyone from rolling out LHP Framber Valdez as a frontline ace tonight.

The 30-year-old ground ball artist is back above a 60% rate since his career-low (but still elite) 54.2% ground ball rate from last season. His strikeouts are right in line with his career numbers, leaving him a tick below one per inning. This amazing and unique combination of skills has him sitting fourth in the league at a 2.85 ERA.

This will be the fourth time that Seattle has faced Valdez, with the last matchup coming back in late-July. Though several hitters on the active roster have had some success against Valdez, he is still a top pitcher on Tuesday’s docket.

MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks

Main Slate Primary Target: Minnesota Twins

Twins vs. Marlins – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Ryan Weathers
DK Top Stack %: 6.8%
FD Top Stack %: 6.7%

The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has the Coors Field Extravaganza with nearly a 25% probability of producing the highest scoring fantasy team of the night. That also means that there is a 75% chance it is one of the other 18 teams that takes home the honors.

Tonight the Twins have a nice matchup against LHP Ryan Weathers, who was rocked in his last start.

Weathers suffered a strained index finger on his throwing hand back in June, which had him out commission until he began an MiLB rehabilitation assignment a couple weeks ago.

On Wednesday, the Dodgers took him to task, scoring six runs in 4.1 innings and hitting a trio of taters, striking out five times.

There is no shame in having a rough go against Los Angeles, but the Twins also have a strong lineup and should be able to find success against Weathers.

Carlos Correa, Byron Buxton and Royce Lewis all being available at the same time has been a rarity this season. Their availability means Willi Castro and Kyle Farmer are now able to slide back in the order, where they are now above average instead of trying to fill in for the missing All-Stars. Ryan Jeffers is a strong catching option, and depending on where he is in the lineup, Manuel Margot is a potential discount dandy.

Main Slate Secondary Target: New York Yankees

Yankees vs. Orioles – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Dean Kremer
DK Top Stack %: 6.4%
FD Top Stack %: 6.8%

Going against Aaron Judge and Juan Soto is a rough ask for any pitcher in the league. This duo has combined for 95 home runs, and Judge leads the league with 55 while Soto ranks fourth overall.

New York has a strong history against RHP Dean Kremer, with the active roster boasting a .273/.333/.512 triple-slash line in 121 at-bats.

The 28-year-old is an above-average pitcher, but he is inconsistent with his strikeouts, which can lead to some big innings for opposing teams.

Giancarlo Stanton, Austin Wells and Jazz Chisholm comprise the next trio to target. Skipping over leadoff man Gleyber Torres and struggling Anthony Rizzo can provide a little bit of differentiation from the other New York stacks.

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Final Thoughts for Tuesday, Sept. 24

There is potential precipitation risk for the early MLB action. For the featured slate, only Atlanta and Chicago need to be monitored, with potential for an in-game delay. Before locking in your MLB DFS picks, make sure to visit the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.

Eric "EMac" MacPherson won the 2007 Fantasy Baseball grand prize (trip for two to the MLB All-Star game) in the Roto format on ESPN. He won again in 2008, this time in the H2H format. As one of the early adopters of daily fantasy sports, EMac has been providing content for baseball and basketball as well as both professional and college football since 2012 for a variety of websites including DraftKings Playbook, FanVice, RotoWorld, Daily Fantasy Bootcamp, and RotoGrinders. He is well into his third decade of fantasy sports and has a wealth of knowledge and experience. Follow him on Twitter @EMacDFS or contact EMac by emailing [email protected].

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