Friday wraps up the work week with a robust 13-game featured slate, with a 7:05 p.m. first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Tanner Bibee and Reynaldo Lopez as the key arms to build around, while Texas and the Los Angeles Dodgers are the teams to target for stacks.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | May 31
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tanner Bibee (CLE vs. WAS)
Guardians vs. Nationals – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool love the matchup tonight for RHP Tanner Bibee who is at home against the Washington Nationals. There is no salary break for Bibee on DraftKings and FanDuel, but by proxy he is around 10% undervalued by the Yahoo salary algorithm.
Washington has won five of the last seven games and the Nationals have Lane Thomas (knee) back and he once more has the green light on the basepaths, swiping four bags in his last two games. Thomas, CJ Abrams and Luis Garcia are a solid young trio for Washington, along with catcher Keibert Ruiz. However, the rest of the lineup is replacement level at best and while they do a good job of limiting strikeouts, power is almost nonexistent.
Bibee has been good for around a strikeout per inning and now he is working on run prevention as the next step to becoming a consistent frontline starter. In his last eight games, the 25-year-old has been stellar with 47 strikeouts in 54 innings, compiling a 3.40 ERA, 3.50 FIP and holding opposing batsmen to a .226/.271/.399 triple-slash line. If he can be efficient, a quality start is in play and he should at least be able to close out the fifth innings, allowing him to be in position to garner a win.
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Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Reynaldo Lopez (ATL vs. OAK)
Braves vs. Nationals – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
RHP Reynaldo Lopez had his start pushed back, which improves his matchup from the Nationals, to the Oakland Athletics. Lopez spent the last three seasons as a reliever, with his last “full-time” stint in the rotation, back in the pandemic shortened 2020 season when he made eight starts for Chicago.
Lopez was solid working out of the bullpen, but he wanted to get back into a starting role. Last year he made 13 appearances for the Angels and after being released, he was Guardians claimed off waivers by the Guardians, who sent him out to the mound a dozen times. Atlanta decided they had seen enough and gave him a three-year, $26 million contract and a chance to make the rotation.
Lopez has not disappointed and while he has just two victories in nine starts, he also has a 1.75 ERA, 1.09 WHIP and almost a strikeout per inning. While he has been lucky, his 2.86 FIP and 3.86 xFIP are still terrific and his strikeouts have been a little lower than what the season long projection systems had him pegged for.
Oakland has tallied the fifth fewest runs this season, even with the fourth most home runs. The team is among the dregs with a .222/.306/.331 triple-slash line, along with the second most strikeouts in the league. If Lopez can keep the baserunners to a minimum, he should cruise towards a quality start this evening.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo (SEA vs. LAA)
Mariners vs. Angels – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$9,200 at DraftKings
$8,900 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
RHP Bryan Woo still has the wild card designation, particularly with his increasing salary and because he has been getting by on efficiency. He had a late start to this season with elbow inflammation and he also missed time last year with the same malady. Manager Scott Servais has said he will not let Woo throw more than 80-to-85 pitches and in his last three starts he has tossed 79, 77 and 70 pitches, logging 5.1, 6.0 and 6.0 innings.
In his four starts this year, he has 21.2 innings, with 16 strikeouts, at 1.66 ERA and a 0.60 WHIP. The team pulled him early in his first appearance as he had some forearm tightness and Servais said there is a good chance Woo could get time in the bullpen, both to help the dodgy options there and limit the workload for Woo’s elbow. The matchup against the Angels is a good one, with the team averaging just 3.0 runs per game over the last week, plus the injuries to Mike Trout, Brandon Drury and Anthony Rendon. Woo again needs perfection at his lofty salary and limited workload, so that is threading a tight needle.
For those looking for a different route, going across the field to RHP Jose Soriano is a fine strategy. Depending on your DFS site of choice, he is available at a 10%-to-20% discount when compared to Woo, plus the Seattle offense leads the league with strikeouts. The 25-year-old had 42 innings in 38 appearances as a reliever last year, posting as similar stat line to this year, albeit with more strikeouts. Tonight will be only the 50th appearance for Soriano in The Show and his 10th start. He has done a good job of limiting power, which is something the Mariners already lack and he has collected around a strikeout per inning. For those of you who have read this far, enjoy!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Target: Texas Rangers
Rangers at Marlins – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Sixto Sanchez
DK Top Stack %: 5.8%
FD Top Stack %: 5.2%
After a 2-11 stretch, the World Champions have rattled off three wins and will be looking to extend that streak this weekend in Miami. Texas has been struggling on offense, averaging 2.43 runs during the slump. They have 16 runs over the last three tilts, so it looks like the Rangers are out of the doldrums.
This has been a rough go for RHP Sixto Sanchez and in his six starts since moving into the rotation, he has a 6.29 ERA, with only 14 strikeouts in 24.1 innings. The good news is that he has allowed only one home run, the bad news is that he has just 14 strikeouts, with another three unearned runs that are not being counted against him.
Look to stalwarts Corey Seager, Marcus Semien and Adolis Garcia as the foundation for any Texas stack. Switch-hitters Leody Tavares (OF) and Jonah Heim (C) have been bouncing around the lineup, but they are both very much in play. Nathaniel Lowe has been in a major slump over the last month with Josh Smith, but these lefties have the platoon-advantage in this “get right” spot tonight.
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Main Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Rockies – 5.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Dakota Hudson
DK Top Stack %: 8.2%
FD Top Stack %: 8.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Dodgers as the most likely offense to top the leaderboard, though with 26 teams in action, that is still a relative low figure. More important is a matchup against RHP Dakota Hudson who has not been able to escape damage with his groundball ways and DraftKings and Yahoo have done a decent job with salaries, making for some tough decisions. Though if you saw the hidden analysis for a cheaper pitching option above, you can have a little salary relief on Yahoo and a fair amount on DraftKings.
Hudson does a decent job of limiting power, but he is going against a trio of MVPs at the top of the Los Angeles lineup. He barely has a double-digit strikeout rate (12.5% over his last 585 batters faced) and his hard hit rate is dangerous for those batters who can get a little loft on the ball for screaming line drives or even home runs.
Mookie Betts, Freddie Freeman and Shohei Ohtani are the aforementioned MVPs, though it is worth noting that Ohtani has been dealing with a tender hamstring. Teoscar Hernandez, catcher Will Smith, along with outfielders Andy Pages and Jason Heyward are the other stacking options. For the late-slate, skipping Ohtani would create a fair amount of differentiation with other Dodger backers.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Ozzie Albies is jumping off the page in the OddsShopper model with the over on his 0.5 stolen base prop. The +880 wager is currently available at FanDuel is ridiculously outpacing the market and that is the key to the “market based” betting approach.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +741 “true odds,” so the +880 line brings a wicked 3.8% expected ROI. We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with books like PointsBet and HardRock offering +475 lines. Be a savvy shopper!
Now, it is crucial to understand that stolen bases can be fickle, much like home runs. Albies has just four on the season, but he did nab one two games ago. Atlanta just dropped three of the last four games to the Washington Nationals and of course the loss of Ronald Acuna Jr. (knee) has taken the wind out of the sails. Now is the time for Albies to provide a spark as the Braves host the Oakland Athletics, who they should sweep this weekend.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Friday, May 31
Kansas City is the only venue with precipitation risk, where a postponement could be on the table. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
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