Friday wraps up the work week with an 11-game featured slate, locking at 7:05 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before diving into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Joe Ryan and Spencer Schwellenbach as the safer options, while Yusei Kikuchi is an interesting tournament option. Baltimore and Atlanta are the clear top offenses, though there are ample pivots.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 2
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Joe Ryan (MIN vs. CHW)
Twins vs. White Sox – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$9,700 at DraftKings
$10,800 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Joe Ryan as the key hurler for Friday’s action. While it is warm in Minnesota with a breeze out to right field, the Chicago White Sox continue to be by far the worst offense in the league, so favorable hitting conditions are not going to save them.
The last half dozen starts for Ryan have been a bit of a rough patch, with the 28-year-old compiling a 4.98 ERA across 34.2 innings. There is plenty of silver lining love, with his underlying metrics showing a 2.58 FIP and 3.10 xFIP, buoyed be a wicked 11.2 strikeouts per nine innings during this timeframe. Four of these starts were also on the road, which is an advantage for the hometown hitters. Don’t think too long on this decision; just ride with The Masses and find differentiation elsewhere.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Schwellenbach (ATL vs. MIA)
Braves vs. Marlins – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$8,800 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$46 at Yahoo
Age before beauty. With RHP Charlie Morton taming the Marlins last night, tonight it is time for rookie RHP Spencer Schwellenbach to show out. July was a breakout month for the 24-year-old phenom, allowing him to drop his ERA from 5.68 to 4.06 in four starts.
In the most recent 26 innings, Schwellenbach compiled a 2.08 ERA and 28 strikeouts in 26 innings, ceding a trio of taters and one lonely walk. Miami jettisoned every hitter of value, dealing Luis Arraez, Jazz Chisholm, Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz, leaving a barren roster. Yes, Jesus Sanchez, Jake Burger and Zavier Edwards have shown some promise, but the rest of the day-to-day lineup is below replacement level. Expect to see more and more recommendations against the Marlins and White Sox for the final two months of the season.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Yusei Kikuchi (HOU vs. TB)
Astros vs. Rays – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$8,900 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
There are a few wild card options tonight with several pitchers donning new uniforms. RHPs Paul Blackburn and Frankie Montas have good matchups, but it is LHP Yusei Kikuchi who is worthy of the attention for the transitory throwers.
Kikuchi’s results have been all over the place, but the one consistent aspect has been an elevated strikeout rate. Over the last 10 starts, the 33-year-old southpaw has suffered a 6.20 ERA and 11 home runs in 49.1 innings. However, that includes some bad luck, as evidenced by his 4.52 FIP and 3.35 xFIP. Even more intriguing for DFS purposes, the venerable veteran has nearly 12 strikeouts per nine innings during this stretch of games.
Unlike the White Sox and Marlins, the Rays still have some capable hitters, but they too are lacking at the bottom of the order. If Kikuchi is able to navigate the likes of Yandy Diaz and Christopher Morel, he should have a path towards a quality start and at least half a dozen strikeouts.
For those feeling both daring and lucky, RHP Randy Vasquez is a discount dandy in the nightcap in a delightful matchup against the Colorado Rockies in San Diego.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Marlins – 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Valente Bellozo
DK Top Stack %: 11.3%
FD Top Stack %: 11.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool has Atlanta well above the rest of the teams when it comes to fantasy production tonight. Across the main DFS sites, the Braves have just over an 11% probability of being the highest-scoring squad, nearly 4% better than any other option.
RHP Valente Bellozo will be making his third career start. The 24-year-old began his baseball journey back in 2018 with the Astros in the Dominican League. Between injuries and the pandemic, he did not make it to Double-A until last year. This season he had 31.1 innings at that level before being promoted to Triple-A, where he was mediocre in 34.2 innings. We could see Bellozo as a reliever for the next couple of years, but he mostly relies on a changeup, with little in the way of strikeout stuff.
Austin Riley and Marcell Ozuna both profile well in this same-handed matchup, and Matt Olson is heating up, knocking one out of the park last night. Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario made some magic in the 2021 postseason, and Atlanta has brought them back to reprise their roles while replacing Ronald Acuna Jr. and Michael Harris II. Keep in mind that Ozzie Albies is also on the injured reserve, so this is not the same powerful lineup from the first couple months of the season. Of course, these injuries have opened up other opportunities for the likes of Jarred Kelenic, Orlando Arcia and now Whit Merrifield.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles at Guardians – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Carlos Carrasco
DK Top Stack %: 7.3%
FD Top Stack %: 7.1%
Just when it looked like RHP Carlos Carrasco had found his groove, the All-Star Break curtailed his mojo. In the last two starts, he has allowed a dozen runs in nine innings. To his credit, he has 11 strikeouts and just one walk, but the three home runs, four doubles and a triple are problematic.
The Orioles lost Jordan Westburg with a fractured hand, and since Jorge Mateo is also on the injured reserve, expect either Jackson Holliday to start or Coby Mayo to be called up from the minors. Baltimore has an embarrassment of riches, considering it just dealt infielder Connor Norby for LHP Trevor Rodgers.
Colton Cowser should be in the leadoff slot, and he has been stellar in lefty-righty matchups, with a .348 wOBA and a .228 ISO in 259 plate appearances this season. Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn are a nightmare for opposing right-handed hurlers, with a solid track record of excellent production over the last couple seasons.
That leaves Ryan Mountcastle and Cedric Mullins as differentiation options, along with either Holliday or Mayo as a discount dandy. Ladies and Gentlemen, the Batters of Birdland!
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Tonight we can attack RHP Valente Bellozo in the DFS world and in the sports wagering market. Currently, the under on his 3.5 strikeouts prop stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +130 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +123 “true odds” for Bellozo to stay under four strikeouts, which brings a steady 2.9% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by sharp book Pinnacle posting a punitive +108, which equates to a NEGATIVE 7% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
In his first start, Bellozo had two strikeouts in Kansas City, then he racked up eight against the Boston Red Sox. He projects for around 6.8 to 7.1 per nine innings by the main projection systems (ZiPS, Steamer, The Bat), though they have him as a reliever. The hope tonight is that the Atlanta bats punish Bellozo early and often, sending him to the showers prior to a fourth strikeout.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can vanish in minutes. With an OddsShopper Premium subscription, you’ll be equipped to grab these fleeting chances before they slip away.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Friday, Aug 2
There is a lot of “potential” precipitation in the forecast, though at this time it is New York and Washington as the two venues that are most likely to be directly impacted during the game window. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
