Tuesday has a terrific 11-game featured slate with a first pitch of 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Grayson Rodriguez and Tarik Skubal as the two top pitching options for tonight’s action. The Coors Field Extravaganza is looming large, but there are some fun spots for divergence, with the Los Angeles Dodgers and Chicago Cubs.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 2
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Grayson Rodriguez (BAL at SEA)
Orioles at Mariners – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$10,200 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Grayson Rodriguez flagged as the best all-around option across the DFS sites. He gets a nice park and weather upgrade with this game in Seattle and of course the Mariners are the most strikeout-happy team in the league.
Tonight will be the 38th start for Rodriguez and the 24-year-old continues to improve. He has lowered his ERA by just over a half a run from his rookie campaign, while also maintaining just over a strikeout per inning. Currently he has a 9.7 strikeouts per nine innings ratio and while at some point he will crest into double-digits, he still has some inconsistency in that category. That should not be an issue tonight as the projected M’s lineup has a 28.2% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Tarik Skubal (DET at MIN)
Tigers at Twins – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$53 at Yahoo
The Twins are mostly healthy and with plenty of right-handed batsmen, which means this is not an easy matchup for a lefty. Fortunately, LHP Tarik Skubal is far from the regular run-of-the-mill pitcher and he has been among the top three American League Cy Young Award frontrunners all season.
Skubal has lowered his ERA every season he has been in the league and it has been an impressive progression from 5.63, 4.34, 3.52, 2.80 to 2.32. Last year in his 15 starts, he had an 11.4 strikeouts per nine innings ratio, and he is at 10.4 per nine this season, with 17 more innings. The 27-year-old has been impressive when it comes to limiting power, with a combined .112 ISO across his last 696 batters faced. Skubal is a luxury option in tournaments, but a priority in “cash games” (i.e. H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.).
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Jose Soriano (LAA at OAK)
Angels at Athletics – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$7,500 at DraftKings
$8,200 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
There is no salary relief presented by RHP Jose Soriano on FanDuel or Yahoo, but he is looking like the SP2 du jour on DraftKings. He is very much in the mix for tournaments across the board, particularly against the wildly inconsistent Oakland offense, which has the second most strikeouts in the league.
Soriano is coming off the injured reserve, having landed there two weeks ago with an abdomen infection. What exactly that is, well let’s leave that to the medical professionals and those with overactive imaginations. In any event, he is slated to start tonight and since this was not an issue with this arm, back or legs, it would make sense to expect something approaching a typical workload. In his four starts prior to this absence, he recorded 97, 85. 98 and 91 pitches.
In his rookie season, Soriano worked exclusively as a reliever, with a 12.0 strikeouts per nine innings rate, across 42 innings and 38 appearances. It makes sense that he has come down from that rate, though the 7.5 strikeout rate is lower than what DFS gamers would like to see. Soriano limits power, with just 2.61 extra-base hits per nine innings and he also has an 8.5% walk rate for his career.
The Athletics have pop, with the ninth most home runs, but the third fewest runs. Most of the power resides with Brent Rooker, Shea Langeliers and JJ Bleday
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Dodgers vs. Diamondbacks – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Ryne Nelson
DK Top Stack %: 6.4%
FD Top Stack %: 6.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Dodgers as one of the best Coors Field countermoves. In the last 12 games, Los Angeles has tallied five or more runs six times, including games with 14 and 11 runners crossing the plate.
Over his last 953 batters faced RHP Ryne Nelson has a dramatically disastrous .215 ISO against right-handed batsmen, with lefties posting an eye-popping .221 ISO. Look to former MVPs Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman as the key building blocks for all LA stacks tonight, with veteran Jason Heyward providing solid salary relief. Will Smith is a tremendous option at backstop and Teoscar Hernandez and Andy Pages round out full-stacks nicely.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Cleveland Guardians
Cubs vs. Phillies – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:05 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Michael Mercado
DK Top Stack %: 5.1%
FD Top Stack %: 4.9%
Rookie RHP Michael Mercado had a 12.7 strikeouts per nine innings rate last year across 39.2 frames for Triple-A Durham. He was brought over from Tampa last November, slotting in with Triple-A Lehigh Valley for 47.1 innings this year with his strikeouts falling to 8.37. Control is an issue as the second-round selection from the 2017 MLB Draft has a 4.5 per nine innings rate at these two stops.
It will be fun to see how many gamers stray from the Coors Field Extravaganza tonight, but not many are likely to land with the Cubs on DraftKings where Chicago is the fifth most popular stack (7.1%). FanDuel is a different story, where the low salaries have the Cubbies as the most popular stack (14.4%). This is a good reminder of just how important it is to understand the salaries, scoring systems and roster requirements for your preferred DFS site of choice.
Look to the heart of the order, with Cody Bellinger, Michael Busch, Seiya Suzuki, Ian Happ and Christopher Morel as excellent options, covering a variety of positions.
If you need some more tips on how to use the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study process, Steve Buzzard has a great guide here on how to maximize your lessons learned from the Sims! Check it out HERE.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
This evening, RHP Mitch Keller is someone to target for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts, which is available at +120 on Hard Rock.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +113 “true odds” for Keller to fall under six strikeouts, which indicates there is a solid 3.4% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Unibet and Bet Rivers at -103, which is indicative of a NEGATIVE 7% expected ROI.
Across his last nine starts, Keller has fewer than six strikeouts four (44%) times. The projected lineup for St. Louis has a 21.5% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching since the start of last year.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Tuesday, July 2
There is nothing wild to report for the three games today, particularly since only two are outdoors. Though, as always, be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by DraftKings Pick6 – new users, use this link to receive $50 with your first $5 play!
