Tuesday keeps the MLB DFS action rolling with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo decided to reach forward to grab the three earlier games, going with a 6:35 lock, so do not miss the first pitch! Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Zack Wheeler and Paul Skenes as key arms, while the Yankees lead the way as the top projected offense.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 11
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Zack Wheeler (PHI at BOS)
Phillies at Red Sox – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,000 at FanDuel
$54 at Yahoo
This has been a stellar season for RHP Zack Wheeler, who is narrowly in the lead over teammate LHP Ranger Suarez for the National League Cy Young Award, based on consensus odds. Wheeler is in his age-34 season but putting up the best numbers of a strong career.
Only in the 2017 season did Wheeler ever have an ERA over 4.00, and his career rate is 3.38, which is impressive. This season he has a 2.23 ERA, 0.97 WHIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings. Masataka Yoshida is close to a return, and there is a chance that Rafael Devers (knee) and Tyler O’Neill (knee) will be available tonight. If all three are in the lineup, then we may want to revisit Wheeler as the top overall option, but he would still be a top-3 target.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Paul Skenes (PIT at STL)
Pirates at Cardinals – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:45 p.m. ET
$9,400 at DraftKings
$10,500 at FanDuel
$52 at Yahoo
Rookie Paul Skenes continues to be impressive, with 38 strikeouts in his 27 innings of action. He has allowed five earned runs and three home runs in his last 11 innings, though three runs and two round-trippers were against the mighty Dodgers, who also struck out eight times in five innings.
St. Louis has been struggling on offense this year, losing basically the entire starting outfield and catcher Willson Contreras to injury, while stalwarts like Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado were in dreadful slumps. The team has the fourth-fewest runs in the league, but in the last eight games, the Cardinals have scored five or more runs five times while averaging 4.75 runs in this timeframe.
Contreras, Lars Nootbaar and Tommy Edman are all still out, so the projected lineup for the Redbirds has a 24.5% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season. Alec Burleson and Nolan Gorman have essentially been the two most productive hitters against right-handers this season, which just shows how far the Cardinals have fallen after decades of success.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Bryan Woo (SEA vs. CHW)
Mariners vs. White Sox – 2.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,900 at DraftKings
$9,700 at FanDuel
$49 at Yahoo
Four is an impressive number for RHP Bryan Woo. Four would be the number of earned runs he allowed in his six appearances, spanning 33.2 innings. Four is also the same number of scoreless outings to his credit this season, including three of the last four.
Woo got off to a late start this season after dealing with elbow inflammation in spring training. This malady also cost him time last year, and manager Scott Servais has already said that the team is not going to overwork Woo at any point this season. In his last appearance on Thursday in Oakland, Woo recorded a season-high 85 pitches. That was 19 and 15 more than his prior two outings, which is impressive in that his efficiency has been off the charts. This means he is going to need to thread the needle to continue averaging 13 pitches per inning.
Fortunately, the Chicago offense is one of the most pathetic in the league, partly due to injuries but also an overall lack of talent. The White Sox have averaged only 3.08 runs per game and have tallied 26 fewer than Miami and 33 fewer than Oakland. Woo has just 24 strikeouts in his 33.2 innings, and even though he had six in his last start, he has nine total punchouts in his last 18 innings.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Yankees at Royals – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Brady Singer
DK Top Stack %: 9.4%
FD Top Stack %: 9.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the New York Yankees as the best team to target, with a matchup against RHP Brady Singer. The team saw Juan Soto return after missing a few games with forearm tightness, and after a day off, Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge are slated to be in the lineup.
Singer is not a bad pitcher by any stretch of the imagination, but he lacks consistency. Though he has improved to nearly a strikeout per inning, along with a 50% ground ball rate, getting everything to work in the same game for sustained stretches has proven to be tricky for the 27-year-old. We can see that in his last four starts, where he allowed three of his seven home runs on the season but saw his ground ball rate fall to 42%, making him exploitable. He was fortunate that these games came against Oakland, Seattle and Tampa, otherwise he likely would have had some real trouble.
Those lapses are exactly what the Yankees can exploit with a fully healthy lineup. In addition to the aforementioned trio of outfielders, the team also has Anthony Volpe and Alex Verdugo knocking the cover off the ball. Of course, on Yahoo and DraftKings, we can only roster three outfielders, but that also provides the opportunity for some in-stack leverage against the field by simply skipping over whichever outfielder ends up being the most popular.
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Wild Card Target: Oakland Athletics
Athletics at Padres – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Randy Vasquez
DK Top Stack %: 3.2%
FD Top Stack %: 2.8%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is intrigued by the Oakland Athletics as a mini-stack capable of providing some differentiation and salary savings. Tonight the A’s are in San Diego facing RHP Randy Vasquez, who has been a whole lot of m-e-h, MEH over his last few starts.
In his last three starts, the 25-year-old has been mediocre at best, allowing four home runs and striking out a scant 10 in 17.2 innings. The biggest knock against the Oakland offense is an inability to consistently get runners on base. The team has been OK from a power perspective with the fifth-most home runs in the league, but when the bases are empty, those longballs do not exactly do meaningful damage to opposing pitchers.
Looking back to the start of last season, Vasquez has allowed a .224 ISO to lefties and a .158 ISO to same-handed batsmen. This year, fellow righties have seen a surge to a .209 ISO, which bodes well for the likes of Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday and catcher Shea Langeliers.
To be clear, this is a strategy suggestion for roster construction. The Guardians, Diamondbacks, Twins, Phillies and Blue Jays all have double the probability of the Athletics to be the highest-scoring team in the Top Stacks rankings.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Bryan Woo was covered above for his DFS merits, but we can also look to exploit him in the sports wagering world. The efficiency king stands out in the OddsShopper model for the under on his 6.5 strikeouts prop. The most commonly available best line is -130, currently posted on SuperBook, PointsBet and Fanatics. For those who have Hard Rock as an in-state operator, the -125 line is even better.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -142 “true odds,” so the -130 line brings a steady 3.8% expected ROI. You can see that jumps up to nearly a 7.0% ROI on Hard Rock, showing how sensitive wagers really are for those who pay attention to the math.
We can also see how crucial it is to shop the odds, as sportsbooks tend to vary wildly with their offerings. This can be seen with sharp book Pinnacle posting under 6.5 strikeouts at a ridiculous -197. Be a savvy shopper!
Woo projects for around 5.8 strikeouts, even giving him a season-high 85 pitches, matching his workload from last Thursday. He had six strikeouts in that effort and has only had more than six once, back on May 21, in New York against the Yankees. This season, Woo has a 20.2% strikeout rate in his limited action, and we know he is being intentionally capped around 85 pitches. Even with the projected White Sox lineup having a 25.7% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching, getting to seven strikeouts is going to be tricky.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
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Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Tuesday, June 11
There are no current weather issues in the forecast, though it is worth one last doublecheck with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by Sleeper – new users, use this link to receive a $100 first deposit match! Full details here.
