Saturday brings a robust 10-game featured slate with a 7:05 p.m. ET lock time on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before diving into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and craft optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Jack Flaherty and Bailey Ober as the safer options. Stacking partners include Atlanta once again as well as a surprisingly plucky Seattle squad.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 3
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Jack Flaherty (LAD at OAK)
Dodgers at Athletics – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:07 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$10,500 at FanDuel
$55 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Jack Flaherty as a building block in all formats, in his debut for the Los Angeles Dodgers. The 28-year-old should be well-rested, having last toed the rubber on July 24, with only three starts last month.
After getting dealt to the Baltimore Orioles for a postseason push last season, the former St. Louis Cardinal was dreadful, posting a 6.75 ERA and 1.67 WHIP across nine outings and 34.2 innings. This season has been the second-best of his career, behind only his 2019 season in which he finished fourth in the NL Cy Young Award race.
The 28-year-old should be at the peak of his powers. He owns a personal-best 11.2 strikeouts and 1.6 walks per nine innings. His 2.95 ERA is supported by his 2.96 xERA, 3.12 FIP and 2.59 xFIP.
Since the All-Star Break, Oakland has rattled off a 9-4 record, and they are among the league leaders in scoring and home runs over the last month. The team still has plenty of strikeouts, and there are enough shaky bats in the lineup that Flaherty should be able to impose his will tonight.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Bailey Ober (MIN vs. CHW)
Twins vs. White Sox – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
The Chicago White Sox have lost 18 straight, and before this swing, they had another 14-game losing streak. There is a real chance that the team could fall below the 43-119 record compiled by the 2003 Detroit Tigers, which is the nadir for all teams playing in the era of 162 games per season.
Tonight, RHP Bailey Ober is a steal on DraftKings, though he has an appropriate cap hit on FanDuel and Yahoo for this cherry matchup. Over the last 30 days, Chicago has scored 62 runs in 24 games for a paltry 2.58 per tilt.
Their 62 runs over the last 30 clock in at 28 below Tampa Bay and nearly 100 behind Arizona. The team also has limited power upside with a .113 ISO, striking out 26.7% of the time, which is the third-most in the period. Anything less than a quality start and half a dozen strikeouts should be considered a failure by Ober.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Grant Holmes (ATL vs. MIA)
Braves vs. Marlins – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
$7,700 at DraftKings
$6,800 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
The dichotomy of salaries for RHP Grant Holmes across the main DFS sites is something to behold. Yahoo ($50) is giving the MiLB lifer the ace treatment, DraftKings ($7,700) is accounting for the strikeout potential and FanDuel ($6,800) is ¯\_ (ツ)_/¯ about the whole thing.
Miami has a 25.2% strikeout rate over the last 30 days with below-average run creation. Of course that was compiled with Jazz Chisholm Jr., Josh Bell and Bryan De La Cruz, who were all dealt at the trade deadline, in the lineup. Though the Marlins are not as bad as the ChiSox, the top of the order is filled with unproven talent and the back half of the lineup is basically below replacement-level bats.
Holmes is essentially the Crash Davis of pitchers, starting his career back in 2014 as a first-round pick by the Dodgers right out of high school. After being traded to Oakland in 2016, the former preppy phenom advanced to Triple-A in 2019 before continued shoulder issues and the pandemic derailed his progress. That level was his apex, and he was subsequently released by the Athletics in 2022. Atlanta gave Holmes a minor league deal, and he ultimately earned a call-up to The Show.
Projection systems do have Holmes with a solid strikeout rate, but that is under the parameters that the baseball vagabond works out of the bullpen. Holmes has tallied three or more innings in each of his last three outings, culminating in a five-inning start on Monday, when he struck out eight in Milwaukee. In these 11.1 innings, he has 15 strikeouts, allowing six runs, with 10 hits, one walk and one round-tripper.
Operating under the assumption that Holmes can push his pitch count to the 75-80 range, he is worthy of our attention on DraftKings. He will need to be efficient on FanDuel to even qualify for the quality start bonus, but he is still in contention as a tournament lottery ticket. Yahoo has effectively priced him out of play, which is a shame.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Atlanta Braves
Braves vs. Marlins – 5.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:20 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Kyle Tyler
DK Top Stack %: 11.3%
FD Top Stack %: 11.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is going back to Atlanta again, even after the team “disappointed” last night with five runs. The team has won five of the last six games, averaging just over five runs per game in this stretch.
RHP Kyle Tyler will be making his 14th career appearance in The Show, debuting in 2021 with the Angels, getting in two games for the Padres in 2022 and then moving into a starting role this season for the depleted Marlins. He also had MiLB stops for the Giants and Mariners before landing in Miami. Walks have been an issue for Tyler, who has issued an even dozen in his 24.2 innings of action.
Keep rolling with the regulars, focusing on Marcell Ozuna, Austin Riley and Matt Olson. Whoever is behind the plate between Sean Murphy and Travis d’Arnaud is also a solid stacking consideration. Jarred Kelenic has slid down the lineup with the reacquisition of Jorge Soler and Eddie Rosario, with this trio forming the second wave of Atlanta options.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Seattle Mariners
Orioles at Guardians – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Kolby Allard
DK Top Stack %: 7.3%
FD Top Stack %: 7.1%
If you want to see #PhilliesTwitter melt down, go search on LHP Kolby Allard’s name. Tonight it sounds like RHP Orion Kerkering will open the game before giving way to the former Atlanta hurler. There is a “k” in his name, but certainly not in his game any longer, which has the Mariners on the shortlist as a secondary stack tonight.
Allard was the 14th overall selection in the 2015 MLB Draft, joining Atlanta directly from high school. He had his first cup of coffee with the parent club in 2018, before being traded to Texas. He muddled through a couple of seasons before ultimately being released after compiling a 6.07 ERA across 179.1 frames with 7.8 strikeouts per nine innings. Atlanta reacquired Allard in 2022, ultimately releasing him after an injury-plagued second-stint with the team. The Phillies took a chance on Allard, giving him a one-year, $1 million deal. He opened the season in Triple-A, being recalled last to pitch last Sunday.
Considering that Allard posted a 5.23 ERA (with a whopping 13 unearned runs) in 72.1 innings in the minors, this is likely his last hurrah. Expect him to be banished to the bullpen or released when Ranger Suarez or Taijuan Walker return to action.
The Mariners popped off for 10 runs last night, the third time in the last seven games they reached double-digits. In this seven-game stretch, the team has plated 51 runs, though in the preceding six games they logged 11 runs.
Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford are still on the injured reserve, but shout-out to 39-year-old Justin Turner for getting out the mustard and the rye bread for a grand salami last night. Long-time Seattle fans will wistfully recall the magical 1995 Refuse to Lose Mariners that saw Vince Coleman knock a granny after being a late-season add to bolster a playoff run. Turner at least doesn’t strike out, which is an improvement for this K-happy crew.
Randy Arozarena was another addition to the team, and while he has had mixed results this year, he at least is productive against southpaws. Dylan Moore has a long history of success against lefties, as does designated hitter Mitch Garver. Add in switch-hitting catcher Cal Raleigh along with waiver claim Victor Robles and suddenly there is the makings of a secondary-stack, covering a variety of positions and price points.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
This afternoon, LHP DJ Herz is an intriguing option in the sports wagering market. Currently, the under on his 4.5 strikeouts prop stands out on FanDuel, where it is available at +126 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +121 “true odds” for Bellozo to stay under four strikeouts, which brings a 2.3% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by sharp book BetRivers and Fliff posting a +100 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 9% expected ROI.
PointsBet is taking a different approach, moving the line up to 5.5 strikeouts, with a -165 line. This all makes sense, with Herz projected for 4.9 strikeouts today.
Over his last four outings, Herz has eight, four, four and 10 strikeouts. The projected lineup for the Brewers has an 18.1% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last two seasons. The hope is that the selective and patient hitters like Willy Adames, William Contreras and young Jackson Chourio will be able to entice Herz to waste pitches. In the last four starts, Herz has tossed 79, 79, 102 and 92 pitches. Today he projects for something in the upper-80s. These are the little edges that all come together, making this a positive expected value wager.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can vanish in minutes. With an OddsShopper Premium subscription, you’ll be equipped to grab these fleeting chances before they slip away.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Saturday, Aug 3
Saturday’s featured slate looks to be precipitatio- free – with the slimmest of chances that Minnesota is seeing a hint of red. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
