MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 20
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Luzardo missed the latter half of last year with a back issue, but he got a clean bill of health heading into spring training and has been stellar in the early going for the Phillies. In his last two healthy seasons, Luzardo logged 279 innings with a wicked 10.58 strikeouts per nine innings. In 23.1 innings for his new team, he has 11.19 strikeouts per nine innings while also avoiding extra-base hits. The strikeouts could be sustainable until the summer weather reaches Citizens Bank Park, but he will ultimately suffer some home runs. That does not have to happen on Sunday, so back up the Brink’s truck and get some Luzardo in your tournament portfolio.
For those who are on the fence and not following the Marlins closely, Griffin Conine suffered a dislocated shoulder on Saturday and may end up on the injured list. Jesus Sanchez returned a couple days ago after missing the first part of the season with an oblique injury, though he is dreadful at best against fellow lefties. Connor Norby also returned from his own oblique issue that held him out of the first three weeks of action, but he is a veritable wind machine against lefties, so Luzardo supporters are hoping he is in the lineup.
Other bucks-deluxe options on Sunday include reigning American League Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal against the Kansas City Royals and Tyler Glasnow in Texas against the Rangers.
In 2021, at the trade deadline, the New York Yankees acquired Holmes, and he spent the last three-plus seasons there, including working as the closer in the Bronx, picking up 74 saves in three seasons (30 last year). In a bit of a surprise, the other team in the Big Apple decided to sign Holmes to a three-year, $38 million dollar contract and turn him into a full-time starter. It has worked out well thus far, with the 32-year-old getting the honor of starting on Opening Day, and he has piled up a whopping 28 strikeouts in his 19.2 innings. That has helped him survive 11 walks and hitting two batters, as has a paucity of extra-base hits. Somehow Holmes has ceded one double, one triple and zero, zip, nada home runs.
St. Louis has scored the fifth-most runs in the league this season, though they plated only five through the first three games of this series. Sunday the Cardinals are looking to avoid the sweep, so it will be a bit of a surprise if too many regulars get the day off. The biggest worry for Holmes, aside from regression, will be the left-handed trio of Lars Nootbar, Alec Burleson and Brendan Donovan. This matchup won’t be a walk in the park, but the $7,400 salary on DraftKings makes Holmes a strong SP2, and at $9,600 on FanDuel, he is underrepresented in tournaments.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Boston Red Sox
Hopefully, most of you have seen Donnie Brasco and know that reference. Of course, that movie was popular in the late 90s, though if you have not seen that, you had another chance with The Wolf of Wall Street. If you have not seen either movie, then please use one of your many subscription services to IMMEDIATELY rectify that situation!
For DFS, today’s example of Fugazi is RHP Sean Burke. After the White Sox dealt Garrett Crochet to Boston for prospects this offseason, Burke ended up being the Opening Day pitcher for the Southsiders.
He tallied six scoreless innings against the Los Angeles Angels, but then in his next trio of tilts, he managed to close out 10.2 frames with an 11.81 ERA, a 2.05 WHIP and five — yes, FIVE — home runs against only seven strikeouts.
Since the beginning of last year, Burke has a combined .217 ISO, with same-handed hitters leading the platoon split at a .257 ISO, which bodes well for former Houston slugger Alex Bregman and Trevor “Ouch I’m Injured” Story.
There is no respite from the opposite-handed batsmen, with Rafael Devers, Jarren Duran and Wilyer Abreu as the obvious clicks. That said, do not forget about Triston Casas, who is bound to break through at some point now that Your Ol’ Pal has abandoned hope for him on all dynasty and redraft leagues.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
He ended up getting a three-appearance cup of coffee with the parent club, ultimately being sent back down to the minors and released last fall. One week later, Atlanta claimed him, though the Braves designated him for assignment in late January. A few days later, Miami came calling, and that brings us to today.
Expectations are for Gillispie to be a multi-inning reliever, though with RHP Ryan Weathers on the injured list, he has slotted into the rotation. Unless it is a “baseball being baseball” kind of day, the 27-year-old is unlikely to put up much resistance against the Phillies. Sunday is cooler than yesterday, but game-time temperatures are still expected to be around 70 degrees with a light breeze blowing in from left-center field.
Bryce Harper and Kyle Schwarber are the foundational pieces for any Philadelphia stack, with Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos rounding out the core four. Max Kepler was dreadful at the plate last year, but he is at least making contact against opposite-handed hurlers, giving him enough of an advantage to consider for full five-man stacks, along with Bryson Stott, if the latter is leading off.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
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Take JJ Bleday over 0.5 total bases today, for example. This is a +EV bet, meaning it has positive expected value based on the best odds available. But smart betting with Portfolio EV isn’t about chasing isolated plays; it’s about consistently firing off a high volume of +EV wagers. With the Mass Entry tool, you can scale your action and let the math compound your edge over time.
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Portfolio EV is built for bettors who want to win over the long haul. By identifying market inefficiencies, the best available odds and stacking a portfolio of +EV bets, it sets you up for compounding returns over time. This isn’t about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the numbers and executing a smart, consistent and scalable strategy to beat the books.
Milwaukee is expected to roll out RHP Logan Henderson this afternoon, which will give Bleday the platoon advantage. Henderson was a fourth-round selection in the 2021 MLB Draft who worked his way through the Brewers farm system. In his 37.2 innings for Triple-A Nashville over the last two seasons, he was terrific with 50 strikeouts. Injuries to Nestor Cortes, Brandon Woodruff, Aaron Civale and Tobias Myers have forced the hand of the Brew Crew, creating a need for Henderson to make his MLB debut this afternoon. The A’s are a top-heavy lineup, which could make short work of Henderson if he has rookie jitters.
