Monday brings a new week, with a robust nine-game featured slate locking at 7:20 p.m. ET lock on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll use Stokastic’s tools to pinpoint today’s best MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Bryce Miller and Cole Ragans as pitching stalwarts, with the Astros and Phillies as countermoves against the Coors Field Extravaganza.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 22
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Bryce Miller (SEA vs. LAA)
Mariners vs. Angels – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has elevated RHP Bryce Miller with high honors tonight in his matchup against the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. On Sunday afternoon, the Halos popped off for five runs in the eighth inning, avoiding a series sweep in Oakland.
However, all is not rosy since across the last 15 games, the Halos have averaged 3.07 runs per game, with the ignominious designation of being shut out four times. The current projected lineup for Anaheim has a woeful .135 ISO and a 24.4% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this season. Oft-injured Anthony Rendon is healthy for the moment, but he has a scant five doubles as his only extra-base hits in 112 at-bats. This is a major fall from grace after leading the league in that category during the 2018 and 2019 seasons, including topping the leaderboard with 126 RBIs in the latter season.
Miller continues to be solid, and while he does not strike out a lot of hitters, he still has 8.1 strikeouts per nine innings across 44 career starts. Surprisingly, the Angels active roster has a scant 26 at-bats against Miller, with a whopping 13 strikeouts. That is definitely an aberration, but it is good to see that the lack of familiarity is still on Miller’s side.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Spencer Arrighetti (HOU at OAK)
Astros at Athletics – 4.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$7,800 at DraftKings
$7,600 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
This is more of a DraftKings SP2 recommendation than anything else since there are clearly safer options on FanDuel and Yahoo’s $38 salary is not much of a discount. The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool ranks RHP Hunter Green at Atlanta and struggling LHP Ranger Suarez at Minnesota as two pitchers who are better than RHP Spencer Arrighetti on the blue site.
The Oakland offense has been on an epic heater with 91 runs scored in the last 11 games, including totals of 19, 18 and 13. This has propelled the A’s up the leaderboard to the point they are well above the dregs and can almost reach out to the middle of the pack. Of course, the team still has the second-most strikeouts in the league, and while baseball prophet Crash Davis implores his disciples to “respect the streak, because they do not happen very often,” they can also end as quickly as they start.
Arrighetti faced the Athletics twice in June, allowing five runs, five walks and 10 hits, with a dozen strikeouts in 10 combined innings. The hope tonight is for the 24-year-old rookie to close the book on the fifth inning, be in line for the win bonus and tack on a handful of strikeouts — not too bad for $5,300 on DraftKings, not so great on the other DFS sites. Update: Your Ol’ Pal and his tired old eyes misread Harris’ $5,300 salary for Arrighetti, the $7,800 is still a solid SP2 salary on DraftKings, with the rookie a solid cash game (H2Hs, 3-mans, 50/50s, etc.) option with either Ragans or Miller. (h/t to Loigwine for spotting this oversight).
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Cole Ragans (KC vs. ARI)
Royals vs. Diamondbacks – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$10,900 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo
The Wild Card designation is no slight for LHP Cole Ragans, rather it is intended to call out the tricky matchup on a salary with very little wiggle room for error. Arizona has been a top-10 team against southpaws this season with a 117 wRC+ and only a 20.2% strikeout rate for their current active roster.
Fortunately, Ragans can conjure up strikeouts on his own and it is slightly cooler tonight with the evening game-time temperatures slipping into the upper-70s, with a light breeze blowing in from right field. The 26-year-old lefty currently ranks eighth in the league, with 10.9 strikeouts per nine innings. That is only a tick below last season while comfortably above his 10.0 career rate. Ragans also limits power, allowing only 21 round-trippers in 1,042 hitter matchups, with 63 total extra-base hits. Another way to visualize that is one home run every 49.6 hitters faced and an extra-base hit every 16.5.
The current Arizona roster has only three collective at-bats against Ragans, all while with other teams, since this is the first time he will be taking on the Diamondbacks. This is a strength-on-strength matchup, which should be a fun one to watch. The pucker-factor is likely to be high, though the expectation is that Ragans should succeed more often than not.
For additional tips on using the Post-Contest Simulator to enhance your lineup analysis, check out Steve Buzzard’s guide on how to use simulations to improve your lineup study process!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Philadelphia at Twins – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Bailey Ober
DK Top Stack %: 6.4%
FD Top Stack %: 5.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool has the Boston Red Sox with close to a one-in-five chance of being the highest-scoring team tonight in Coors Field against LHP Austin Gomber. Houston has half that probability, while Philadelphia has about one-third of the likelihood of being the best fantasy team.
So why play a team other than the BoSox? Well, dear reader, because 80% of the time they will not be the best-scoring stack. That is the beauty and variance that makes up MLB DFS. Positives for the Phillies include being in the top 5 for runs, total bases, home runs, RBIs and steals. Plus, J.T. Realmuto has returned from the injured reserve, which means the Philadelphia offense is at maximum powers.
RHP Bailey Ober is a solid pitcher who usually takes care of business against weaker opponents, but he is looking at a fully operational Death Star tonight, with warm weather, elevated humidity and an 8 to 12 mph breeze out to left-center field. If Ober is not striking batters out at the plate with his 25% rate over the last two seasons, he has a below-average ground ball rate (35%), above-average fly ball rate (34%) and a .190 ISO.
Kyle Schwarber, Trea Turner, Bryce Harper and Alec Bohm form the core four when it comes to stacking priority, with Brandon Marsh giving discounted differentiation from the back half of the lineup. DraftKings and Yahoo have boosted the salaries for the key contributors, which means there will be some fun decision points tonight.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Houston Astros
Astros at Athletics – 4.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Hogan Harris
DK Top Stack %: 8.9%
FD Top Stack %: 8.1%
Walks have been an issue for LHP Hogan Harris, who has handed out 14 freebies in his last five appearances, spanning 22.1 innings. He also has allowed 14 total runs while only striking out 12. The one thing keeping him from having worse numbers in this stretch is lucking into just two round-trippers.
Harris has allowed a .186 ISO for his career in 491 batters faced, with 388 opposite-handed hitters doing most of the damage to the tune of a .196 ISO. Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman have finally begun to show signs of life at the plate against southpaws, proving they still have something left in the tank. Losing Kyle Tucker to injury and having Jose Abreu literally fall off the age cliff has not helped, with significant at-bats now going to Jon Singleton and slumping Chas McCormick.
Fortunately, Yordan Alvarez is still amazing, and Jeremy Pena, Jake Meyers, and catcher Yainer Diaz have all been excellent secondary contributors, which has given a boost to the aging core of the Astros. Each is solid against lefties while providing options at a variety of positions and salaries.
Our Lineup Generator provides exceptional value at Stokastic! Discover how to use it alongside our other MLB DFS tools in our Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight LHP Austin Gomber looks like someone to target with Boston stacks in the DFS world and, even better, the sports wagering market.
Currently, the under on his 4.5 strikeouts stands out on Fliff, where it is available at -145 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has -151 “true odds” for Gomber to stay under five strikeouts, which brings a 1.7% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle all the way down at a -200 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI.
This is an excellent demonstration of how OddsShopper identifies opportunities by using a market-based approach, pitting the books against each other.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle all the way down at a -200 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI. This is an excellent demonstration of how OddsShopper identifies opportunities by using a market-based approach, pitting the books against each other.
Gomber projects for 4.2 strikeouts tonight against the Red Sox, which is well below the five needed for the under to fail. In his last eight starts, Gomber has recorded five strikeouts once and four or fewer seven times (88%). The goal, of course, is for Boston to send him to the showers early before he can get to that fifth strikeout.
Other wagers pop up and fade away within minutes when lineups are announced, making it essential to have an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Monday, July 22
Minnesota has some late-evening rain in the forecast, though at this time it looks like the game should be okay. For the three-game early slate, Cleveland and Pittsburgh are worth monitoring as there could be an in-game delay that impacts pitching, though at this point it looks like both will avoid a postponement. Before making any MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for updates as the first pitch approaches.
To finalize your MLB DFS picks for today’s slate, tune in to the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:30 p.m. ET, sponsored by Underdog. New users can click this link to receive a deposit match up to $250!
