MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 3
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
For FanDuel, there is a 14.8% likelihood that the sublime southpaw will be the top-scoring fantasy hurler, with representation on one-third of all rosters. These figures indicate that Sale is overleveraged on each of the sites, coming in at -15.6% on FanDuel, 21.1% on DraftKings and 35.6% on Yahoo.
Sale is currently the frontrunner for the National League Cy Young Award in recognition of his career season. The active roster for Colorado has a 90 wRC+ against lefties, which is the fourth-lowest efficiency rate in the league, and an 82 wRC+ when away from Coors Field, which is the second-worst rating this season. If you have the means, treat yourself to Sale tonight.
RHP Luis Castillo did have a rough August, finishing the month with a 4.66 ERA across five starts. To his credit, he did have a wicked 37 strikeouts in his 29 innings, for 11.5 strikeouts per nine. Though the A’s are not as K-happy as the M’s, they are one of the more strikeout-friendly matchups. For those panicked by the August ERA, Castillo was at 1.99 in July, and on the season he has a stellar 3.65 ERA, 1.17 WHIP and 17 quality starts. The discount from Sale is significant, which also has Castillo’s popularity elevated, even on this large slate.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
LHP Steven Matz last pitched in The Show on April 30 before a back issue sidelined the 33-year-old veteran. Then the lefty had issues during his rehabilitation, further delaying his return. He began ramping up his workload in August, making six appearances with the Memphis Redbirds, so he should be in line for around a 70- to 75-pitch effort tonight — assuming he is not shellacked prior to reaching that threshold.
Willy Adames has been on a heater, with home runs in five consecutive games, also tying Ken Griffey Jr. with 13 three-run home runs in a season. Funny enough, 26 of his 29 home runs have been against fellow righties. That has been a trend throughout his career, but this season he has struggled against lefties. Fortunately, that should not be too much of a concern against Matz.
Rhys Hoskins, Gary Sanchez and Joey Ortiz each have a .216 ISO or better against lefties this season, and, of course, catcher William Contreras has become a well-rounded hitter from the three-hole. Rookie Jackson Chourio should be near the top of the order, with Blake Perkins serving as a salary saver.
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Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Dodgers
Power has been an issue for Detmers, particularly fellow lefties. That means this is a doubly bad matchup since Shohei Ohtani and Freddie Freeman are both adept against same-handed hurlers. Year in and year out, Mookie Betts is phenomenal with the platoon advantage, and Teoscar Hernandez and catcher Will Smith are not too far behind. The salaries for Los Angeles on DraftKings and Yahoo will make for some interesting decision points, but with the September roster expansion, there will be more and more discount dandies entering starting lineups every day down the stretch.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
LHP Cade Povich gets a great matchup against the anemic Chicago White Sox, but the rookie has struggled himself this season.
The OddsShopper model has the 24-year-old hurler for around 4.7 strikeouts tonight, just above the 4.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fanatics and Unibet, where it is available at +120 odds.
OddsShopper’s Portfolio EV shows this wager has +116 “true odds” for the youngster to fall short of six strikeouts, and that works out to a 1.9% expected ROI.
We can see that Fliff has an absurd -110 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 12% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
In his last nine appearances, Povich has recorded three, three, six, one, six, one, three, five and one strikeouts. This just isn’t a part of his game, even against a weak lineup like the ChiSox.
With new wagers constantly appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having an Portfolio EV subscription is crucial to capitalize on every opportunity.
