Friday resumes the second “half” of the regular season, with an 11-game featured slate locking at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Luis Castillo and Hunter Brown squaring off in Seattle, while Gerrit Cole takes on a listless Tampa offense. The Coors Field Extravaganza will, of course, dominate projections, but the Mets and Athletics are interesting pivot stacks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 19
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Gerrit Cole (NYY vs. TB)
Yankees vs. Rays – 3.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:05 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$9,600 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
Friday marks the sixth start of the season for RHP Gerrit Cole, as he missed significant time after experiencing elbow soreness in spring training. Fortunately, it was determined to be inflammation, so rest was the prescribed remedy.
The 33-year-old ceded four home runs in Citi Field to the Mets in his second start, along with four of his nine walks. He has 21 strikeouts in 15.1 innings over his last trio of tilts, holding the Orioles, Red Sox and Blue jays to one home run, six total runs and just four walks.
Tampa has lost the mojo that carried the offense for the last half decade, scoring more than three runs only twice in the final nine games of the first portion of the season. The team was 4-5 in that span, but that was only because of outstanding pitching across the board. The team plated only 22 runs during this stretch, which is just abysmal. Yandy Diaz suddenly looks like he is 32 years old, Randy Arozarena is completely lost at the plate, plus the situational hitting of Harold Ramirez and platoon partners Luke Raley and Manny Margot was not properly replaced during the offseason. There is also the whole thing with “He Who Shall Not Be Referenced By Name” facing charges after having missed the last 11 months.
That has left a power void that is not going to be filled by the likes of Richie Palacios and Taylor Walls. Jose Siri, Josh Lowe and Brandon Lowe (no relation) will do what they can, but this is an anemic collection of bats with a propensity for strikeouts.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown (HOU at SEA)
Astros at Mariners – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$9,100 at FanDuel
$28 at Yahoo
Yahoo dropped the ball with RHP Hunter Brown being just $3 above the minimum salary for starting pitchers. He should be another $10 to $12 more for this matchup, and he would still be one of the top 5 plays on the site.
After a dreadful April (11.84 ERA, 2.36 WHIP), Brown allowed two or fewer runs in 10 of 13 (77%) starts.
In the three other games, the 25-year-old allowed three, four and seven runs. Even better, he also has continued to rack up strikeouts, with 9.7 per nine innings during his resurgence. Seattle is the most K-happy team in the league while also scoring the fourth-fewest runs. The Mariners have watched a nearly double-digit-game advantage in the standings dwindle to just one over Houston. This is a crucial series that will set the stage for the American League West title and also determine if the M’s decide to go for some offensive help prior to the trade deadline.
This will be the third time that Brown has squared off against the Mariners this season and the first since late May. In his 10.1 innings, he allowed just three runs while racking up 14 strikeouts. He did not allow any longballs but did issue four free passes on May 5.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Luis Castillo (SEA vs. HOU)
Mariners vs. Astros – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
$8,200 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$41 at Yahoo
The three highlighted hurlers in this article are essentially interchangeable among the three designated categories. RHP Luis Castillo is a little behind Cole for strikeouts and the potential to get the win, and his current form is not as good as Brown’s.
Castillo has a chance to help set the tone for this series in front of what should be a rabid collection of rowdy Seattle fans tonight. The crowd has less impact on baseball games than it does in football or basketball, but it still can help elevate a pitcher. The 31-year-old hurler has once again displayed his metronome-like consistency, with a 3.53 ERA and 1.17 WHIP that are right in line with his career averages. While his strikeout rate is down to 8.9 per nine innings — is one below last year and 1.2 shy of his career baseline — he has cut his home runs and is on pace to tie a personal-best 20 quality starts. Kyle Tucker is still out, leaving Chas McCormick and Joey Loperfido to fill his shoes, while Jon Singleton has not been much better than the recently released Jose Abreu.
For additional tips on using the Post-Contest Simulator to enhance your lineup analysis, check out Steve Buzzard’s breakdown on how to use simulations to enhance your lineup study process!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Mets
Mets at Marlins – 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Edward Cabrera
DK Top Stack %: 12.8%
FD Top Stack %: 12.6%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool grants everyone permission to consider the Coors Field Extravaganza with LHP Kyle Harrison and RHP Cal Quantrill presiding over a game with a 10.5 run total. The Mets are not likely a top choice for many casuals, especially after watching Pete Alonso scuffle in the Home Run Derby.
To be fair to the two-time champion and five-time participant, that is a tough contest and a lot of things have to go right. While Marlins Park is a pitching-friendly venue, it is still an upgrade over Citi Field and RHP Edward Cabrera certainly has been performing like a batting practice pitcher. Cabrera has been dealing with a sore shoulder, and he already has been on the injured reserve twice, including a two-month stint from the first part of May until early July. In his seven appearances, he has an 8.26 ERA, 1.59 WHIP and a whopping EIGHT home runs, with 15 walks. The 42 strikeouts seem like an aberration in comparison to the rest of the results, but this is a good time to look to New York bats.
Francisco Lindor, Brandon Nimmo, veteran J.D. Martinez and catcher Francisco Alvarez are the players to include with Alonso when stacking the Metropolitans. Depending on your DFS site, of choice, third baseman Mark Vientos may be available at a discount, which is intriguing since his surge in production this year has forced the Mets to keep Brett Baty in the minors. Skip Jeff McNeil, even if he is near the top of the order, as this has been a lost season for the typically solid contact hitter.
Late Slate Primary Target: Oakland Athletics
Athletics vs. Angels – 4.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Griffin Canning
DK Top Stack %: 20.3%
FD Top Stack %: 20.2%
The Angels have not officially listed a pitcher yet, but most sites have RHP Griffin “Tomato” Canning as the expected starter. Even if it is LHP Reid Detmers who is recalled from Triple-A (admit it, you probably thought he was hurt and not banished to the minors for the last six weeks), who cares, as the author of a no-hit game has allowed 11 runs in his last two starts across eight innings.
RHP Chase Silseth would be better off selling seashells by the seashore than pitching, having allowed five or more runs in three of his last five Triple-A starts, with a ridiculous 15 walks in 21.2 innings. LHP Tyler Anderson could be the starter as well since he has been off since last Friday, but it really doesn’t matter.
Oakland wrapped up the first part of the regular season in style with 18 runs on Sunday. The A’s also had 19 runs on July 6, but the truly epic game for the season was 20 runs on May 4. In a “baseball being baseball” moment, those three games and 57 runs represent nearly 15% of the season total. Another way to view this anomaly is to realize these games add nearly 0.6 runs to the A’s season average of 3.97 runs per game.
Picking on the Athletics has been a viable strategy all year and likely will continue to be more of the same, but we can still back them in the right matchup. Canning has allowed “only” 10 runs in his last three starts, but he also has tallied just 14.2 innings. He has allowed home runs in his last six games and has suffered a trio of multi-home run tilts this season. Additionally, his strikeouts have dropped to 6.2 per nine innings, down 2.5 from his 8.7 career average and a precipitous fall from his personal best of 9.9 last year.
For the featured slate, duos and trios are fine, with Oakland being a secondary or tertiary stack. Brent Rooker, JJ Bleday and catcher Shea Langeliers are the most “trustworthy” targets, with Lawrence Butler, Zack Gelof and Seth Brown forming a second wave. This motley crew would be hard pressed to move beyond reserve roles for most squads, but here we are.
Our Lineup Generator is maybe the best bang for your buck here at Stokastic! Find out how to use it in conjunction with our other MLB DFS tools in our guide Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight, RHP Hunter Brown will be squaring off against the Mariners in Seattle, with the Mariners being the most strikeout-friendly team in the league. We have already established above that Brown should be a key part of DFS portfolios, but some of that downside can be addressed in the sports wagering market.
Currently the under on his 6.5 strikeouts stands out on DraftKings, where it is available at +125 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has +121 “true odds” for Brown to fall under seven strikeouts, which brings a 1.7% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Pinnacle all the way down at a +103 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 8% expected ROI.
The 1.7% expected ROI is not overly impressive, but the +125 payout is, particularly with PointsBet coming at this from a different angle with -150 odds for Brown to fall shy of eight strikeouts. He projects for 6.8 today, which is above the 6.5 threshold but still below the seven needed for the under to lose since there are no fractional strikeouts.
In his last five starts, Brown has recorded five, six, five, seven and six strikeouts. That is an arbitrary cut-off because in the next three most recent starts, he had nine, seven and seven whiffs. For the season, he has fewer than seven strikeouts in 12 of 19 (63%) appearances, more than seven twice (11%) and exactly seven five (26%) times.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Friday, July 19
Friday looks pretty clean from a precipitation perspective, with only a chance of fleeting summer showers in Atlanta. Check out your top MLB Weather Report page as first pitch approaches for updates before making any MLB DFS picks.
Before finalizing MLB DFS picks for the day’s slate, tune into the Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show at 6:00 p.m. ET brought to you by DraftKings Pick6 – new users, use this link to receive $50 with your first $5 play!
