MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 6
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Speaking of Atlanta, it looks like rain is going to cross off this game since there are no letups in the forecast. That takes out Sandy Alcantara for Miami and Grant Holmes for the hosts. It does look like there could be scattered showers in New York; however, the game should play between the Mets and Toronto Blue Jays. That means LHP David Peterson is the first pitcher we can really consider on this slate.
Last year, everything came together for Peterson after he had spent the first couple seasons as a back-of-the-rotation starter then two years as a swingman, finally getting a full-time gig in 2024. He made 21 starts, logging 121 innings and limiting power to only 0.60 home runs per nine innings, courtesy of his 50% ground ball rate. His 7.51 strikeouts per nine innings were a four-year low; however, that projects to move back into the 8.1 to 8.6 range. When paired with his proclivity for inducing worm-burners, he is a solid DFS option.
Mitigating Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Anthony Santander will be key, though aside from catcher Alejandro Kirk, aging George Springer and slumping Bo Bichette, there is not a lot of worry in the Toronto batting order.
Blanco also has a propensity to allow power since he is not afraid to challenge hitters, which is not a problem when the bases are empty. When there are runners on board, well, that can turn his starts into madcap adventures, for his DFS backers.
The Twins are already without Royce Lewis, and it is only a matter of time before Carlos Correa and Byron Buxton are dinged up. That duo plus lefties Trevor Larnach and Matt Wallner are the biggest threats to Blanco this afternoon. Minnesota does not have a bad lineup; it is definitely pesky with Ty France, Willi Castro, catcher Ryan Jeffers and slugger Harrison Bader, but none of these guys is particularly threatening. Keep in mind longtime fan favorite Max Kepler is now in Philadelphia, taking another regular out of the lineup.
To be clear, Blanco would be a pitcher we would only be sprinkling across lineups today if it weren’t for so many dicey weather spots. Burnes, Glasnow and even Sanchez would all be preferable if the prognosticated precipitation problems dissipate.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Contrarian Target: Kansas City Royals
LHP Cade Povich was acquired by Baltimore at the 2022 MLB trade deadline when the Orioles moved closer Jorge Lopez to the Minnesota Twins. The O’s also received pitchers Yennier Cano, Juan Nunez and Juan Rojas, along with Povich.
The talent is there for Povich, though like many young southpaws, the 24-year-old has had a rough go at putting everything together. Walks and power have been an issue in his scant 84 innings in The Show, which, of course, are a recipe for DFS goodness when considering opposing stacks.
Game-time temperatures will be in the mid-50s with an 8 to 12 mph breeze from right-center. Kansas City has plenty of pop from the right side of the plate, so this is a great spot to ride with the Royals.
Bobby Witt Jr. is a superstar in the making, and he is the straw that stirs the drink in K.C. Veteran catcher Salvador Perez has a long history of success when holding the platoon advantage, and, of course, Hunter Renfroe never misses a chance to swing from his heels. Jonathan India brings excellent contact from the leadoff slot, along with a lofty 14.7% walk rate in his last 177 plate appearances against lefties. Vinnie Pasquantino has pop when he makes contact against same-handed hurlers, plus he should get a chance against some righties from the bullpen. Depending on where they slot in the lineup, journeyman Mark Canha and speedster Maikel Garcia can be used to round out full stacks.
Main Slate Primary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Most season-long projection systems have the 27-uear-old with something close to a 5.00 ERA and 1.5 to 1.6 home runs per nine innings. Walks are also an issue, which just adds fuel to the fire. Jackson Chourio, Rhys Hoskins and catcher William Contreras all thrive in same-handed matchups, with former MVP and two-time batting champion Christian Yelich still dangerous at the plate.
Brice Turang swiped 50 bags last season, and he already has two this year, typically leading off when he has the platoon advantage. Garrett Mitchell also has some pop and better numbers than Sal Frelick, though he tends to hit further down the order. The Cincinnati bullpen has seen some use over the last couple of days, though there are still fresh arms available. This motley crew is a collection of castoffs that we will want to be targeting throughout the season.
Today’s Top Sports Betting Picks
If you’re serious about MLB DFS picks, you already know that using the best tools is key to long-term success. The same principle applies to sports betting, and that’s where Portfolio EV comes into play.
Take today’s Joey Estes under 4.5 strikeouts as an example. It’s a +EV bet, meaning it offers positive expected value based on the best odds available. But true Portfolio EV betting isn’t about chasing one-off plays; it’s about consistently placing a high volume of these +EV bets. With tools like Mass Entry, you can scale your edge and let the math work in your favor over time.
Just like one DFS lineup doesn’t guarantee a win, one bet doesn’t make or break your night — it’s all about the process.
Portfolio EV helps bettors develop a long-term winning strategy by spotting market inefficiencies, finding the best available lines and building a portfolio of +EV bets that can generate compounding returns over time. It’s not about chasing hot streaks — it’s about trusting the data and consistently executing a smart, scalable approach to beat the books.