Sunday wraps up the weekend with a nine-game featured slate beginning at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo’s biggest contests are locking at 4:07 p.m. ET with a five-game docket, including ESPN Sunday Night Baseball. Today we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and use Stokastic’s tools to see how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify top pitchers, and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Marcus Stroman and Kevin Gausman are two of today’s core pitchers, and according to the Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool, the New York Yankees and Kansas City Royals provide stacking opportunities as featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 25
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Marcus Stroman (NYY vs. COL)
Yankees vs. Rockies – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
$7,600 at DraftKings
$7,800 at FanDuel
$32 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool is not thrilled with RHP Marcus Stroman being the recommended SP1, though that is how the cookie crumbles today. The 33-year-old is still elite with a near-50% ground ball rate, but his 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings are his fewest since 2015 and well below his 7.4 career rate.
From a run-creation perspective, Colorado has a bottom-4 wRC+ against righties on the road and, most damning, even at home. Keep in mind that efficiency is not the same as volume, but it is still dreadful to have an offense calling Coors Field home be this bad. Lefties are the only worry for Stroman, with the Rockies looking to empty their bench and get the platoon advantage across as many spots as possible.
Ryan McMahon, switch-hitter Michael Toglia and 38-year-old Charlie Blackmon are the only real worries, and aside from a great nickname and a glorious beard, is Chuck Nasty really all that anymore? Oh, it should be noted that Nolan Jones is back from his MiLB injury assignment, but his power has all but disappeared this season, along with his effectiveness — though the 30%-plus strikeout rate remains.
The hope is that Stroman flirts with a quality start and at least closes the book on the fifth inning, putting him in line for the win bonus if the Yankees can put up some early runs against an inferior opponent this afternoon.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Kevin Gausman (TOR vs. LAA)
Blue Jays vs. Angels – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
$9,300 at DraftKings
$9,000 at FanDuel
$43 at Yahoo
There has been a significant regression of strikeouts for RHP Kevin Gausman, so it is important to remember that the name is not indicative of the game this season. This is the 12th MLB campaign for the 33-year-old, and his 8.2 strikeouts per nine innings have cratered from his 11.5 last year and his 11.1 rate over the last four seasons.
This could just be one of those years, or it could be the production cliff that is catching up with Gausman. Today he will be looking for his 100th career win, which is a fine milestone, though he also has 100 losses in his 284 starts. The venerable veteran has seen his fastball, slider and splitter each fall by an average of 1.2 mph, which is no bueno.
Now for the positive analysis, the Angels were nearly no-hit on Saturday by RHP Bowden Francis — yes, the same fella who entered August with a 5.68 ERA, mostly being used as a multi-inning reliever. Los Angeles has been dreadful, losing 12 of the last 15 (80%) games and averaging a scant 2.9 runs per tilt. This team is ready for the offseason, having battled injuries and, of course, watching Shohei Ohtani be amazing for another franchise. Logan O’Hoppe has been the only consistent bat all season, with Taylor Ward, Zach Neto and Matt Thaiss barely doing enough to warrant a mention. Matchups, supply and demand are colliding today, making Gausman one of the most popular pitchers on the docket.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Robbie Ray (SF at SEA)
Giants at Mariners – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$10,000 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
The two best fantasy options for the late slate are squaring off in Seattle. RHP Bryan Woo continues to be stellar and efficient, when healthy — though with a salary in the same range as LHP Robbie Ray, it is easier to look to the veteran southpaw.
It will be interesting to see how the field reacts to Seattle having a higher implied run total than San Francisco, which can tend to be just enough to have projection systems favoring Woo, well more than the actual range out outcomes would support. The Mariners are the most K-happy team in the league, and the projected lineup has a 26.7% strikeout rate against southpaws this seasons. Ray’s biggest weakness is opposite-handed power, but that is sorely lacking for the M’s.
Cal Raleigh has a whopping .306 ISO from the right side of the plate this season, but getting the bat on the ball has been a problem, as evidenced by his .301 wOBA. Recent acquisition Randy Arozarena has crushed lefties this year, but solo shots are not much of a deterrent for a strikeout artist like Ray. Julio Rodriguez is at least showing some flashes of his talent that landed him the monstrous contract last year, with Dylan Moore being a decent complementary piece.
That is really it; the rest of the lineup has a sub-.100 ISO against left-handed pitching this season, with the “best” remaining hitter being 37-year-old Justin Turner, who was brought over from Toronto a the trade deadline to add a bat that is not an automatic strikeout. Sorry, Mariners fans; this offense is dragging down the deepest pitching staff in the league, and there may not even be a Wild Card series for this squad in October.
Riding the Ray-llor coaster is always an adventure, but the 39 strikeouts in 27.2 innings definitely outweigh the 12 walks and six home runs. All aboard!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees vs. Rockies – 5.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Austin Gomber
DK Top Stack %: 10.4%
FD Top Stack %: 10.5%
Pop Quiz: How old do you think LHP Austin Gomber is going to be when he celebrates his next birthday in November? OK, now add two more years to your guess — he will be 31 years old when celebrating Thanksgiving. Wow.
In a crimes against nature moment, Gomber actually has actually been worse on the road in two of his three seasons playing for the Rockies. There are heaters, and then there is whatever Aaron Judge and Juan Soto are on right now. Over the last 30 days, Soto has a .503 wOBA and a .556 ISO against fellow lefties, which is actually lower than Judge’s .539 wOBA and .567 ISO. These numbers would not even be allowed by the CPU in video games, but here we are.
Giancarlo Stanton should still have enough bat speed to turn on Gomber with some extra-base hit upside, and Jazz Chisholm has flashed potential in same-handed matchups over the last month. That still leaves Mr. Mediocre Gleyber Torres, scuffling Anthony Volpe and catcher Jose Trevino to round out full stacks.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals vs. Phillies – 5.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Kolby Allard
DK Top Stack %: 11.7%
FD Top Stack %: 12.0%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is pleased to see that even delusional Philadelphia fans are not buying what LHP Kolby Allard is selling at this stage of his career. Over the last four seasons, playing for three different organizations, the 27-year-old lefty has a sub-16% soft contact rate, allowing 2.26 home runs per nine innings.
The only positive thing going in favor of the scuffling southpaw is that he has allowed only nine stolen bases in his 258 career innings, and even that is not particularly remarkable. The current Kansas City roster has just 12 collective at-bats against Allred, but the element of surprise is not going to save this batting practice-caliber pitcher.
Who will hit the first home run today for the Royals? That is the most pertinent question to ponder. Game-time temperatures will be in the mid-90s with a 12 to 17 mph breeze out to left-centerfield. Bobby Witt and veteran slugger Salvador Perez are the odds-on favorites, but do not sleep on Hunter Renfroe or Dairon Blanco achieve this milestone.
Maikel Garcia should be at the top of the order, and while Allred has been decent at holding runners on first, the 24-year-old infielder has a career-high 30 steals, ranking him seventh on the leaderboard. Even better is his willingness to swipe third base, which, of course, is a blind spot for Allred.
Vinnie Pasquantino, catcher Freddy Fermin and utility infielder Paul DeJong are tertiary options this afternoon for tournaments.
Harness the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and enhance your MLB DFS picks with our comprehensive Lineup Generator Guide!
Late Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
Padres vs. Mets – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Jose Quintana
DK Top Stack %: 16.4%
FD Top Stack %: 17.2%
After cruising through July with a 2.05 ERA in five appearances, the biscuit wheels have fallen off the gravy train for LHP Jose Quintana. In four outings this month, he has an unsightly 8.27 ERA and a dozen walks in his 20.2 innings, striking out only 16 opposing batsmen.
The 35-year-old has suffered through five multi-home run games in his last 18 starts, which is not really a surprise considering his fly ball rate is among the worst of his career, with elevated walks and a diminishing strikeout rate coming along for the ride.
Donovan Solano profiles well against Quintana, and given Ha-Seong Kim is on the injured list, he should be slotting in the two-hole this afternoon. Manny Machado and switch-hitter Jurickson Profar are the automatic additions to San Diego stacks, with catcher Luis Campusano and the ever-consistent Xander Bogaerts rounding out full stacks.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
It is not usually fun going with a pitcher in DFS while turning around and going against them in the sports wagering world, but there is value in the under on 6.5 strikeouts for RHP Kevin Gausman.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Caesars, where it is available at -109 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -124 “true odds” for the venerable veteran to fall below seven strikeouts, which works out to a stellar 6.2% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced with Fliff posting a -165 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 11% expected ROI.
This afternoon Gausman projects for 6.72 strikeouts, which indicates a 55% probability that he will fall short of the seven needed for this wager to fail. Looking at his recent games in reverse chronological order, Gausman has recorded five, five, two, two, eight, five, three, 10, seven, five, four and six whiffs in his last dozen appearances.
Yes, he has a great matchup against a mostly listless Halos squad, but as covered in the DFS analysis above, Gausman’s strikeout rate has cratered this season.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Sunday, Aug. 25
The clear weather streak continues for another day! Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
