MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 12
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Texas has not had anywhere near the offensive success that propelled the World Series squad, falling from 5.43 runs per game, which was the third best last season, to 4.18 and outside the top 20. Not having Corey Seager, who has yet another injury, is devastating, and Nate Lowe, Josh Smith, Josh Jung and Leody Taveras have a combined .088 ISO over the last 30 days against right-handed hurlers.
RHP Bryce Miller has a 3.18 ERA (11th) and a 0.99 WHIP (5th) while allowing a miniscule 2.22 ERA, 3.00 xFIP and 3.69 FIP over his last 12 starts. He also has just 11 walks and six home runs but 66 strikeouts in these 69 nice innings.
The matchup against Boston is not easy because Rafael Devers, Romy Gonzalez, Rob Refsnyder and Connor Wong all have found success of the southpaw. Of course, if “Nasty Nestor” is on the mound tonight, with his varied arm slots and release points, he could easily find himself among the best fantasy pitchers for this semi-abbreviated docket.
In his last five games, Cortes has allowed six earned runs, meaning he has three scoreless efforts in this stretch. But six starts ago, he allowed six “Ernies” to the Angels. The only other knock against Nestor is that his strikeout upside is limited, with more than five whiffs just once in the last 10 games.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
FanDuel is not making things difficult, even by having Judge ($4,900) and Soto ($4,500) as the two most expensive plays, with all of the other sub-$3,000 options across the player pool. Things are tighter on Yahoo with just eight teams, and the Yankees power trio represents three of the six most expensive players.
RHP Cooper Criswell has a low walk and strikeout rate, which, of course, means there are a lot of balls in play. He does a decent job of limiting power, but come on — Judge leads the league with 51 home runs and Soto is fourth with 39, keeping this duo ahead of their Baltimore rivals Anthony Santander (41) and Gunnar Henderson (36).
Main Slate Secondary Target: Milwaukee Brewers
Weather is always fun since we can all remember countless hot and humid days across the East Coast and Midwest that did not result in offense outbursts. The same goes for extreme wind blowing in or out of Wrigley Field. Heck, even last night when it was in the mid-50s, San Francisco hung 13 runs on the Milwaukee, including 10 attributed to RHP Colin Rea, who watched his top-30 ERA balloon from 3.72 to 4.21. Yowzah.
RHP Hayden Birdsong was pushed back two days to give him extra rest as he appears to be stuck in the rookie doldrums. The has been wildly inconsistent, with five or more runs allowed in three of his last six starts. He also has three or more walks in five of these six outings, which have led to some adventurous innings. To his credit, Birdsong has challenged hitters and more than held his own with 11.1 strikeouts per nine innings, though he has also handed out 35 free passes in these 52 frames, along with 10 round-trippers.
In a fun twist, Birdsong has allowed seven of his 10 home runs and 11 of his 18 extra-base hits to right-handed batsmen, despite facing 96, as compared to 137 lefties. This is probably a “small sample size” wrinkle that will be smoothed out in time. However, it is also fun to note that Willy Adames has brutalized same-handed pitching this season, with a .369 wOBA, .242 ISO and 26 of his 29 home runs via right-handed pitchers.
Garrett Mitchell, Jackson Chourio, Brice Turang, Rhys Hoskins and Jake Bauers all have merit for stacks. Let personal preference and positional need be your guide with this malleable group of mashers.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight we have a home run opportunity with C.J. Abrams against RHP Darren McCaughan.
The Portfolio EV model has the budding star for around an 18% probability of knocking one into the cheap seats tonight.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Unibet where it is available at +500 odds.
Portfolio EV shows this wager has +460 “true odds,” and that works out to a reasonable 7.2% expected ROI.
We can see that Hard Rock has a punitive +350 line, which works out to NEGATIVE 20% ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
In his last two starts in The Show, McCaughan has allowed just one home run in 8.2 innings, along with a double and a triple. He is only the 24th ranked prospect for the Marlins, and his arrival target was last year while with the Mariners, which came and went without a lot of fanfare. He was acquired from Seattle for cash considerations during the offseason, then traded to Cleveland, also for cash considerations in May. Cleveland cut him after two games, with the Marlins reclaiming him a week later.
While home runs are fickle, McCaughan is not exactly a world-beater, which makes Abrams intriguing at the lofty +500 line.
With new wagers frequently appearing and disappearing as lineups are announced, having a Portfolio EV subscription is essential to seize every opportunity.
