Monday has a nine-game featured slate with a first pitch time of 7:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help in identifying today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Tyler Glasnow, Sonny Gray and George Kirby as key aces, with the Los Angeles and Arizona offenses shaping up as two of the best stacks this afternoon.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | April 15
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Tyler Glasnow vs. Washington Nationals — 3.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $11,000 | FanDuel $11,000 | Yahoo $56
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Tyler Glasnow at the top of the projections, which is no surprise given his talent and the lack thereof for the Washington offense. This is, of course, reflected in the highest pitcher salary of the season across the board at the main MLB DFS sites. The 3.0 implied run total for the Nationals is one of the lowest we have seen this year. Glasnow is going to cost a pretty penny, but this is a budget buster worthy of our attention.
Glasnow has been off to a strong start this season, and this will be his fifth start after making his Dodgers debut in the Seoul Series last month. Looking at the proverbial back-of-the-baseball-card numbers, Glasnow has a 3-0 record, 2.25 ERA, 0.75 WHIP, 29 strikeouts and just two home runs allowed across 24 innings.
The Washington lineup is sort of a “haves and have nots” crew when it comes to power upside against righties. Four of the projected hitters have a .120 ISO or lower versus righties, while five batsmen in the projected lineup have a strikeout rate north of 25%. Joey Gallo is the biggest power threat, but he also comes along with a 42% strikeout rate in his last 302 opposite-handed matchups.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Sonny Gray at Oakland Athletics — 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
- DFS Salary: DraftKings $8,100 | FanDuel $9,600 | Yahoo $48
Tonight RHP George Kirby is the safer alternative to RHP Sonny Gray, with the former also being significantly cheaper on both FanDuel and Yahoo. Kirby is nearly a decade younger and arguably the more talented of the two at this moment, but he also is in terrible form. This is a coinflip situation and there are merits for both, but it needs to be noted that, over his last two starts in Toronto and against Cleveland, Kirby has lasted just 7.2 innings, allowing 18 hits and 13 earned runs.
The “good” news is that a lot of this was the result of timely hit sequencing, as he allowed only one home run, two doubles and no walks in these games. In his first 56 starts, Kirby had a pristine 3.37 ERA, 3.20 FIP, 3.51 xFIP and 8.56 strikeouts per nine innings. Cincinnati is a young and promising offense, but also inconsistent. There is a good chance Kirby will right the ship tonight in Seattle.
On to Gray, his appeal is more about the matchup than his actual skillset. Yes, Gray was the runner-up for the American League Cy Young Award last season, which earned him a three-year, $75 million contract with the pitching-starved Cardinals, but that is somewhat paying for past performance. Gray has made three All-Star Games, including last year, but the other two were in 2019 and 2015.
Gray was dealing with a hamstring issue, so his first start of the season was last Tuesday. He held the visiting Philadelphia Phillies scoreless for five innings, five hits and five strikeouts on an economical 64 pitches. Expect him to see something in the 80 to 85 range tonight, which should be enough to have him pushing for a quality start against the team that drafted him in Oakland.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Los Angeles Dodgers vs. LHP Mitchell Parker — 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 10:10 p.m. ET
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool is liking the matchup for the Los Angeles Dodgers, who will be facing LHP Mitchell Parker in his MLB debut. Parker is barely a top-25 prospect for the Nationals, and he is not even close to being on any industry sheets. This is likely a spot-start situation, as even though Parker is on the 40-man roster, he has only four outings under his belt at the Triple-A level.
Deception is the name of the game for Parker, and while that works for southpaws in college and in the low minors, it is nothing the hitters in The Show haven’t already dealt with. Once he has a little more seasoning, Parker will likely hang around as a back-end rotation piece, but he is unlikely to make a lot of noise tonight.
Ho-hum, just a pedestrian lineup here with three former MVPs at the top of the order. Mookie Betts has been amazing at the plate over the last two seasons, with a .450 wOBA and .355 ISO in 204 plate appearances against lefties. Even more impressive is that he has been alternating as the everyday shortstop or second baseman for the Dodgers this year. Freddie Freeman crushes same-handed pitching, and, of course, Shohei Ohtani is one of the best players in the game and arguably the best all-around player ever.
Teoscar Hernandez is a lefty-masher, and while some believe those don’t really exist, his numbers do the talking for him. Chris Taylor should be in the lineup and will provide differentiation and a discount from the bottom of the order. Catcher Will Smith is a priority option on DraftKings and Yahoo if you have the salary cap, and last but not least, Max Muncy can give the ball a ride if he makes contact.
Other DFS and Sports Wagering Opportunities
Joe Ross has been knocking around the league since 2014, and he is someone to target in the sports wagering market for his under 4.5 strikeouts prop. OddsShopper shows this bet has -100 “true odds,” and the +115 line currently available at Hard Rock provides substantial 7.6% expected return on investment (ROI).
Ross sat out the 2020 pandemic-shortened season, and he last logged MLB innings in 2021 when he suffered an elbow injury that led to the dreaded Tommy John surgery. He logged 13 MiLB inning for San Francisco, ultimately being released and signing a contract with Milwaukee this winter.
When healthy, Ross was close to a strikeout-per-inning pitcher, but home run issues and, of course, injuries made those pristine conditions lining up being a rare occurrence. The projected lineup for San Diego has a stellar 18.0% strikeout rate, with only Fernando Tatis Jr. and Tyler Wade whiffing at an above league-average rate against right-handed pitching. If Ross stays in the 80- to 85-pitch range, he is unlikely to go beyond the fifth inning, which bodes well for him staying under five strikeouts.
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Final Thoughts for Monday, April 15 — MLB DFS Picks
The weather for today will be impacting some Mid-Atlantic cities, with Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York each getting exposure to a related weather system. It does not seem like any games will be postponed, but delays are in play depending on the timing and coverage of the precipitation.
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