Sunday launches the MLB DFS action at 1:35 p.m. ET FanDuel, DraftKings and Yahoo. Today we’ll dive into MLB DFS projections and leverage Stokastic’s tools to learn how to build MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Dylan Cease and Chris Bassitt as key aces, while the Houston Astros and San Diego Padres provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 11
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP: Dylan Cease (SD at MIA)
Padres at Marlins – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
$10,100 at DraftKings
$11,100 at FanDuel
$60 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Dylan Cease as the clear building block for Sunday. The 28-year-old pitched only one inning on Tuesday, when a rain delay mucked things up in Pittsburgh after the first inning. The upside is that it has been 17 days since Cease’s no-hitter, and he should be fresh considering that it is mid-August.
Cease leads the league in total strikeouts, and his 11.5 per nine innings rank fourth overall among qualified starters. He also has a career-best 0.99 WHIP, with a stellar 3.40 ERA. The Marlins did pop off for eight runs yesterday and each of the last three games have gone into the 10th inning, but Miami is getting by on smoke and mirrors. the team is 4-9 over the last 13 games, with only four games of more than four runs.
Jesus Sanchez, Jake Burger, Xavier Edwards and Jonah Bride are doing the best they can to generate offense, but the back half of the lineup is continually at risk of three-up, three-down innings. That bodes well for Cease, who should at least notch a quality start, with eight-plus strikeouts in play.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Chris Bassitt (TOR vs. OAK)
Blue Jays vs. Athletics – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:37 p.m. ET
$8,400 at DraftKings
$8,800 at FanDuel
$40 at Yahoo
The matchup is a good one for RHP Chris Bassitt, who will be facing the team which rostered him for the bulk of his career. The 35-year-old is battling to stay under a 4.00 ERA for the seventh consecutive season. Though he is far from sexy, there is still a little dog left in the veteran, which makes him an intriguing secondary pitcher.
After surging up the offensive leaderboard with a torrid six-week scoring stretch, the Athletics have fizzled out once more. Over the last seven games, they have scored only 13 runs, and five of those came on Monday against the dreadful White Sox. Oakland has the second-most strikeouts in the league this season, with the projected lineup averaging a 24.9% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching over the last season and change. Yes, we should respect the power upside of this offense, but this is a strength-on-strength matchup against a savvy veteran hurler.
Late Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Hayden Birdsong (SF vs. DET)
Padres at Marlins – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:05 p.m. ET
$6,000 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$38 at Yahoo
For the late slate, RHP Tyler Glasnow is, of course, the luxury option, facing the Pittsburgh Pirates in Los Angeles. Next up is RHP Hayden Birdsong, who is coming off the worst start of his young career, having been battered around for seven runs in two innings on Tuesday in Washington by the hapless Nationals.
In five July starts, including tilts in Atlanta, Cleveland and Coors Field, the 22-year-old was outstanding with a 2.45 ERA and 33 strikeouts in 25.2 innings of action. He is fully stretched out and 90-plus pitches should be the expectation today, which bodes well for his chances to sneak out a quality start and earn the bonus points on FanDuel.
Matt Vierling is dealing with a back issue and has missed the last couple of games. If he remains out, it is a major hole in the lineup that is already missing Riley Greene, and it looks like Wenceel Perez could be out as well. That means perennial Quad-A player Akil Badoo and the DGAF King Javier Baez will be playing prominent roles for the Motor City Kitties. Advantage Birdsong.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Astros at Red Sox – 5.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP James Paxton
DK Top Stack %: 16.6%
FD Top Stack %: 16.4%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is thrilled that Boston reacquired LHP James Paxton since it means he should continue to get starts down the stretch. If he had stayed with the Dodgers, he likely would have been waived once the various injured starters all returned to action.
Though the native of British Columbia began his MLB odyssey back in 2013 with the Seattle Mariners, today will be just the 177th appearance for the Big Maple. Injuries have limited the 6-foot-7 lefty to only 45 starts over the last five seasons as he plied his trade for four franchises, including Boston twice, and his lone 2021 appearance was for the M’s. Father Time has sapped the strength from Paxton, leaving him susceptible to right-handed power and cutting his strikeouts well below league average.
Houston continues the tradition of being one of the best teams in the league against lefties, so we should continue to look to the usual suspects. Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman, Jake Meyers and catcher Yainer Diaz make up the first priority wave, along with Yordan Alvarez. Depending on where he is in batting order, infielder Jeremy Pena is in play, as are Chas McCormick and Mauricio Dubon, who provide discounted differentiation.
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Main Slate Primary Target: San Diego Padres
Padres at Marlins – 4.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Max Meyer
DK Top Stack %: 7.5%
FD Top Stack %: 7.6%
Miami has played in three consecutive extra-inning games, which is not helping an already-beleaguered bullpen. RHP Max Meyer is in the midst of a rough three-tilt stretch, having allowed 13 runs, an unsightly five round-trippers and half a dozen free passes in 13 innings.
Meyer is the second-best prospect for the Marlins, sliding just inside the top 100 on industry lists. He has a top-shelf slider, but at just 6 feet and 190 pounds, there is some concern about his stamina and ability to hold the upper hand a second time through the order.
Even without Fernando Tatis Jr., there are still plenty of Padres to lean on this afternoon. Jake Cronenworth, Jurickson Profar and Manny Machado are the power trio to target, with two-time batting champion Luis Arraez the perfect leadoff man getting on base in front of this gauntlet. Jackson Merrill has been on a tear all season when holding the platoon advantage, with a .377 wOBA and a .203 ISO across 296 plate appearances.
David Peralta and Ha-Seong Kim are potential differentiation options, depending on how popular this stack becomes. There are eight other teams in front of the Friars, though things flatten out after Houston, New York, Toronto and Cincinnati.
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Late Slate Wild Card Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Phillies – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Cristopher Sanchez
DK Top Stack %: 18.2%
FD Top Stack %: 17.6%
Yes, definitely play the Dodgers at home against RHP Bailey Falter. However, for those looking to get a little different on the two-game slate, Arizona is an appealing alternate. Over the last 30 days, the Diamondbacks have scored 154 runs in 24 games, a full 18 more than the Orioles and Red Sox.
That burst has pushed Arizona to the top of the leaderboard with 612 runs, which works out to 5.18 per game. The team has also been phenomenal against southpaws, which could make for a rough day, as LHP Cristopher Sanchez has logged 126.2 innings this season, the second most of his career. Although the 27-year-old lefty salvaged his start in Los Angeles, holding the Dodgers to just one run in six inning, he notched only one strikeout.
Even including this outing, over his last three appearances, he has 17.2 innings, 11 strikeouts and a 5.09 ERA. While Ketel Marte (ankle) is questionable and Christian Walker (oblique) is out, there is still value and opportunity for the remaining D-backs. Lourdes Gurriel does outstanding work with the platoon advantage, and switch-hitter Josh Bell brings power from the right side of the plate. Randal Grichuk will likely draw leadoff duties, which means more at-bats for the veteran outfielder. Eugenio Suarez is also in play, though sticking with trios rather than full stacks is the sounder strategy since the Philadelphia bullpen is legit.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
This afternoon LHP JP Sears is in Toronto, with the under on 4.5 strikeouts looking like a strong wager.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Hard Rock, where it is available at -155 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -173 “true odds” for Sears to stay under five strikeouts, which brings a 4.1% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff posting a -235 line, and that equates to a NEGATIVE 10% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Sears projects for 3.9 strikeouts this afternoon, which is under the five needed for this wager to lose. FanDuel has taken a different approach, lowering the milestone to 3.5 strikeouts while increasing the payout to +124. The math shows this is a sucker’s bet, with a negative-5% expected ROI for Sears to record three or fewer whiffs.
The projected lineup for the Blue Jays has a sub-20% strikeout rate against southpaws over the last season and change. The 28-year-old has seen a surge in strikeouts recently, but looking at his last 10 games in reverse chronological order shows him producing five, nine, three, four, eight, six, six, one and one punchouts.
Once lineups are announced, betting opportunities can vanish quickly. Stay ahead with an OddsShopper subscription and grab these fleeting chances before they disappear.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Sunday, Aug. 11
Weather should not be too much of an issue, with Colorado the lone precipitation risk. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time approaches.
