Monday brings an eight-game featured slate locking at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is collecting the two games starting at 6:40 p.m. ET, creating a fun 10-game docket. Before diving into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to create MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and build optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to rookie Paul Skenes and veteran Nick Pivetta as the key arms tonight, with the Kansas City Royals and Arizona Diamondbacks bringing the lumber.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 29
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Paul Skenes (PIT at HOU)
Pirates at Astros – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,500 at FanDuel
$55 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has been impressed with LHP Paul Skenes, as has pretty much the entire baseball world. The rookie phenom is at an apex salary on FanDuel and Yahoo, and a lofty, though not as daunting, cap hit on DraftKings.
In 10 of his 12 starts, Skenes had more strikeouts than innings pitched. Eight times he has recorded at least eight strikeouts, hitting a high of 11 twice. He has a wicked 0.87 WHIP, and even though he has ceded eight home runs, he has allowed a grand total of 16 “Ernies” across his 74.2 innings, for a 1.93 ERA.
Tonight will be a tough road test in Houston against the Astros. Of course, the matchup is a little easier with Kyle Tucker on the injured reserve. In his two worst games, Skenes allowed three runs to the Dodgers across five innings, and the Cubs got to him for three runs in four innings in his debut. Of course, his next start he extracted a measure of revenge, striking out 11 in Wrigley Field.
Skenes is the bucks deluxe option, though he has the best median projection and those tantalizing 11.7 strikeouts per nine innings still leave him with a little upside if he can somehow also garner the victory bonus.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Nick Pivetta (BOS vs. SEA)
Red Sox vs. Mariners – 4.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$9,400 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
The elevated salary, dreamy matchup and rough current form all combine to make RHP Nick Pivetta tonight’s wild card option. Sadly, RHPs Tanner Bibee and Jack Flaherty are squaring off in Detroit, but not on the FanDuel or DraftKings featured slate. Fortunately, both are in the mix for Yahoo’s main slate, which is including the games in the 6 o’clock hour.
Pivetta has allowed at least five runs four times this season, with eight being scored against him last Wednesday in Coors Field. He also has 10 of his 16 (63%) resulting in three or fewer runs, though his rough outings have bloated his ERA to 4.50. To his credit, on the season the 31-year-old is striking out 10.7 per nine innings, which would have him inside the top 10 had he not missed a month in the early going.
Seattle leads the league in strikeouts and has scored the third-fewest runs in the league, though the M’s (412) are still well ahead of the Marlins (383) and White Sox (330). The addition of Randy Arozarena will give the offense a boost, but for the time being, Julio Rodriguez and J.P. Crawford are on the shelf.
Pretty much every other pitcher tonight has question marks surrounding them, which in turn helps make Pivetta a more appealing play. A cheaper pivot would be Colin Rea versus Atlanta.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
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Main Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Nationals – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Mitchell Parker
DK Top Stack %: 8.8%
FD Top Stack %: 8.9%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool puts Arizona on the short list every time the Diamondbacks are facing a lefty. Tonight it will be LHP Mitchell Parker, who has had his ups and downs during his rookie campaign.
Considering the 24-year-old had a grand total of 14.1 innings at the Triple-A level prior to joining the parent club, he has not been too bad. Overall across 95.1 innings, he has a 4.34 ERA and a 4.33 xERA with a 4.01 FIP and xFIP. Unfortunately, his four July starts have been pretty rough with an unlucky 9.18 ERA, though his 5.97 FIP is not too great.
Arizona has a 116 wRC+ against southpaws this season, which indicates they are creating runs 16% more efficiently than league average and just outside the top 5 teams in this category. Switch-hitter Ketel Marte has been out of this world from the right side of the plate, with a .478 wOBA and .354 ISO in 154 plate appearances. Lourdes Gurriel Jr., Christian Walker and veteran Randal Grichuk all have found sustained success with the platoon advantage in their careers.
In addition to that core four, catcher Gabriel Moreno is worthy of including in stacks if he slots into the second spot in the order, with veteran masher Eugenio Suarez a differentiation option.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals at White Sox – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Chris Flexen
DK Top Stack %: 11.7%
FD Top Stack %: 11.2%
Tonight the Royals are in Chicago, squaring off against RHP Chris Flexen. Ten days ago, Flexen gave up seven runs, four hits and five walks in Kansas City. While that cannot be expected again for tonight, the Royals have the highest odds of being the best fantasy team on Monday.
In his last eight starts, Flexen has allowed six or more runs three times. All told, he has suffered 31 runs, five unearned, across these 42.1 innings while walking a ridiculous 19 and allowing a dreadful nine home runs. In this period, he has a 5.53 ERA, which is below his 6.03 FIP and in line with his 5.56 xFIP.
Bobby Witt Jr. has been splendiferous against same-handed hurlers this season, with a .419 wOBA and a .249 ISO in 382 plate appearances. Though he only has one steal in July, Witt could easily end up with a 25/25 season, needing seven more longballs and a pair of stolen bases to reach that level. He has hits in 25 of the last 28 games, making him a tremendous option in all formats.
After Witt, veteran Salvador Perez, journeyman masher Hunter Renfroe, versatile Michael Massey and the Pasquatch, aka Vinnie Pasquntino, there are plenty of ways to stack the Royals. MJ Melendez has been dreadful at the plate with a .193 average on the season, but he does have 11 home runs and all 27 of his extra-base hits in same-handed matchups.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
Once again RHP Jameson Taillon is popping up as an option in the sports wagering market. This will be the third time he has been in this column, and he has one win and one loss on his strikeouts prop.
Currently, the under on his 4.5 strikeouts stands out on BetMGM where it is available at +102 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has -104 “true odds” for Taillon to stay under five strikeouts, which brings a decent 3.2% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff all the way down at a -140 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 13% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Taillon projects for 4.2 strikeouts, though, of course, there are no fractional strikeouts in baseball. There is a 51% likelihood that Taillon will fall below the five-strikeout threshold tonight. That makes it crucial to get this line at plus money. In 10 of his 17 starts (59%), the 32-year-old has four or fewer strikeouts. In his last six starts, he has three, three, seven, seven, five and 11. This is a wide range of outcomes, so tonight we are hoping for a combination of either weather or the Cincinnati offense to have Taillon headed to the clubhouse prior to recording his fifth whiff of the game.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can appear and disappear within minutes. An OddsShopper Premium subscription is essential to ensure you seize these fleeting chances.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Monday, July 29
Once more it is the weather in the Midwest that warrants a watchful eye. Chicago and Detroit will have storms in the general area of the stadiums during the game, with Cincinnati potentially being postponed. Before you lock in your MLB DFS picks, be sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as the first pitch approaches.
