Sunday wraps up the weekend with a 10-game featured slate, locking at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings and FanDuel. Yahoo is going with a four-game featured slate locking at 4:05. Before we explore our MLB DFS picks, we’ll utilize Stokastic’s tools to figure out how to create MLB DFS stacks, identify the top pitchers and build optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Cole Ragans and Bailey Ober as key pitching options on the main slate, with RHP Jose Soriano looking solid in the afternoon action. The Royals and Orioles also form a dynamic duo for team stacks this afternoon, and the Pirates are looking to surprise on the late-game set.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 28
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Cole Ragans (KC vs. CHC)
Royals vs. Cubs – 3.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
$10,000 at DraftKings
$10,400 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool would love to have LHP Garrett Crochet as the recommended play against the Seattle Mariners. However, with the trade deadline just 48 hours away, it would make sense for the White Sox to place their supreme asset in bubble wrap for this start.
Enter LHP Cole Ragans, who is far from a consolation prize since he is more established than his fellow lefty, with today being his 60th appearance in The Show. It is going to be hot in Kansas City with temperatures pushing 90 degrees during the game and a 12 to 15 mph breeze out to left field. Even with these favorable hitting conditions, Chicago still has a sub-4.0 implied team total, and that is appropriate given that Ragans has again leveled up this season.
The 26-year-old has 10.7 strikeouts per nine innings, which ranks eighth among qualified starters. He also has career highs across the board with a 3.23 ERA, 3.31 xERA, 2.75 FIP and a 3.28 xFIP. The Cubs will be running out a righty-laden lineup that has a fair amount of power, but it is important to note that Ragans has allowed only 0.66 home runs per nine innings this year and a .116 ISO. The projected Chicago lineup has struck out nearly 25% of the time against left-handed hurlers over the last season and change, with Ragans boasting a 29% strikeout rate in that same span.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Bailey Ober (MIN at DET)
Twins at Tigers – 3.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:40 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$9,700 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
On Yahoo, RHP Bryce Miller is the better play, coming with a 13% discount. FanDuel is a coinflip with Miller and RHP Bailey Ober, as the former is more likely to secure the victory and quality start bonuses, while the latter has the strikeout upside. On DraftKings, the $900 savings tips the scales towards Ober.
Miller has allowed just four runs in his last four starts, though he has recorded only 18 strikeouts in these 23.2 innings. Seattle prefers that he maintains his efficient approach, which has led to a career-best 10 quality starts already on an economical 87.3 pitches per appearance. While he is facing a historically dreadful White Sox lineup, he will be threading a needle to get to his profit potential.
Ober has made significant improvements this season, and while home runs are still lurking, he has dramatically cut his walks with only seven in his last six starts. Of course, in these same 40.1 innings, he has allowed half a dozen home runs, offset by 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings. The Motor City Kitties have made significant strides on offense compared to the last few seasons, but the back half of the lineup is still below replacement level with Carson Kelly, Bligh Madris, 32-year-old Gio Urshela and a completely disinterested Javier Baez, who is just cashing checks at this point. Seriously, Baez has only 13 home runs in his last 737 at-bats, culminating in a .209/.251/.311 triple slash line.
This part of the lineup is ripe for a three-up, three-down inning or two, which is the cherry on top of the Ober observation. Injuries have weakened the Detroit offense with Riley Green, Kerry Carpenter and Parker Meadows all on the injured reserve, and Spencer Torkelson, the first overall selection in the 2020 MLB Draft, is struggling in Triple-A.
Late Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Jose Soriano (LAA vs. OAK)
Angels vs. Athletics – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:07 p.m. ET
$8,100 at DraftKings
$8,300 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
The afternoon action has some interesting pitcher decisions. RHP Jordan Hicks has the best matchup against the hapless Rockies, but he is inconsistent. RHP Mitch Keller is the most established option, but he has the toughest matchup on the road in Arizona. That leaves RHP Jose Soriano in the sweet spot as the priority play.
Soriano is a baseball lifer, having begun his journey back in 2016, starting out in Single-A ball for the Halos. Last year was his first foray into Double-A, and he showed enough to make the jump to The Show after just 23.1 innings. The now-25-year-old began this season in the bullpen, making a pair of three-inning appearances before slotting into the rotation.
Over his last 10 starts, Soriano has tallied 61.2 innings, a 3.02 ERA, 3.91 FIP and 3.89 xFIP. He has ceded only five home runs in this stretch, but the 6.6 strikeouts per nine innings do not allow for much of a fantasy ceiling. Oakland has been on a collective heater over the last 30 days, moving from a bottom-3 scoring team to the middle of the pack with a league-leading 147 runs in the last 24 games. The A’s are also first with a .226 ISO and fourth with 25 stolen bases in this timeframe.
Depending on how popular Soriano is, this game could be a “both-sideser” (h/t TMcB), with Brent Rooker, Lawrence Butler, Seth Brown and catcher Shea Langeliers being the preferred plays. For differentiation it is fine to have one or two of these hitters in the same lineup as Soriano since there are only six teams in the Sunday afternoon player pool.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
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Main Slate Primary Target: Baltimore Orioles
Orioles vs. Padres – 5.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Randy Vasquez
DK Top Stack %: 8.1%
FD Top Stack %: 7.9%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool likes the Orioles this afternoon in a matchup against RHP Randy Vasquez. It is going to be nearly 90 degrees at first pitch, giving a boost to the offenses. The 25-year-old righty lacks strikeouts (16.6%) while allowing a boatload of hard hits (47.5%) across 299 batters faced this season.
So far he has been pretty lucky despite giving up an extra-base hit every 10 batsmen. Vasquez has a 4.17 ERA that is dramatically below his 5.90 xERA while being about half a run under his 4.68 FIP and 4.56 xFIP. The Batters of Birdland lead the league in round-trippers and total bases while scoring the fourth-most runs in the league with nearly five per game.
Vasquez allows ample power to hitters from both sides of the plate, which makes the Orioles a tremendous stacking opportunity. Gunnar Henderson, Anthony Santander and Ryan O’Hearn are the first trio to target, with Heston Kjerstad, Colton Cowser and Jordan Westburg the next wave of youngsters. Feel free to skip over catcher Adley Rutschman for differentiation purposes, and Ryan Mountcastle, Cedric Mullins, and Connor Norby are differentiation plays.
Main Slate Secondary Target: Kansas City Royals
Royals vs. Cubs – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Javier Assad
DK Top Stack %: 8.4%
FD Top Stack %: 8.6%
This looks like it is shaping up to be a batting practice scenario for Kansas City, with RHP Javier Assad striking out only two hitters in his last 10 innings. Walks have always been an issue for Assad, as he has a career average pushing four per nine innings despite making half of his appearances out of the bullpen.
Look to the usual suspects, led by Bobby Witt Jr. and veteran catcher Salvador Perez. Vinnie Pasquantino, Michael Massey and Hunter Renfroe all match up well with Assad, while outfielder Kyle Isbel is the discount dandy du jour. The Cubs have plenty of rested relievers, so there could be a quick hook for Assad, but that should not dissuade anyone from rolling with the Royals this afternoon.
Late Slate Target: Pittsburgh Pirates
Pirates at Diamondbacks – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Yilber Diaz
DK Top Stack %: 17.6%
FD Top Stack %: 17.5%
Today RHP Yilber Diaz will be making his fourth start in The Show. The 23-year-old is the fifth-best prospect in the Arizona system, though he was not expected to be up with the parent club until 2025. He lacks experience, with only 22 innings at Triple-A, all coming this year.
Diaz has a top-notch fastball but control issues. He is likely going to find a role as a multi-inning reliever or spot starter, but for now he will likely get another turn in the rotation as the team awaits the return of RHP Merrill Kelly. In his first two starts, Diaz held Atlanta and Toronto to only a pair of runs in 12 innings, with three walks and seven strikeouts. Things went sideways on Monday, however, with the youngster allowing seven runs in just three innings to the Royals in Kansas City. While he had only one home run and one walk, he did not strike out a single hitter. He also allowed a pair of doubles and a triple before being pulled after 71 pitches.
Pittsburgh may get Rowdy Tellez back in the lineup, but Nick Gonzales left the game early yesterday, so he may be out. Oneil Cruz is locked in, crushing a home run Saturday night while also securing his second triple of the season. He is the obvious play, with veteran Andrew McCutchen and fellow outfielder Joshua Palacios forming a formidable trio. Bryan Reynolds is on the bereavement list, so that is likely to have Jack Suwinski and Connor Joe in the lineup as well.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
This afternoon we can roll with RHP Bryce Miller in the DFS world while also targeting him in the sports wagering market, softening some of the downside in his fantasy performance.
Currently, the under on his 5.5 strikeouts stands out on BetMGM where it is available at -110 odds.
OddsShopper shows this wager has -128 “true odds” for Miller to stay under six strikeouts, which brings a healthy 7.0% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by BetRivers and Unibet all the way down at a -150 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 7% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
As detailed above, Miller tends to get by on efficiency, taking what the opposing offense gives him. In his last dozen starts, he has notched five or fewer strikeouts seven (58%) times, landed on six three times (25%) and posted seven or more twice (17%). The projected Chicago lineup does have a 28% strikeout rate against right-handed pitching this year, but while that is favorable for opposing pitchers, it is not really Miller’s style to go out of his way to rack up the whiffs.
When lineups are announced, betting opportunities can emerge and vanish within minutes. An OddsShopper Premium subscription subscription is essential for ensuring you seize these fleeting chances.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Sunday, July 28
The Midwest has precipitation in Chicago and St. Louis, with the biggest risk being a potential in-game delay. ESPN Sunday Night Baseball is in Boston, featuring the Red Sox and New York Yankees — with an elevated probability of rain during the game. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, make sure to check the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as the first pitch approaches.
