Thursday brings a widely dispersed docket with a variety of start times. The larger contests are locking at 12:05 p.m. and 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before diving into our MLB DFS picks, we’ll use Stokastic’s tools to learn how to create MLB DFS stacks, find the key pitchers and build optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Corbin Burnes as the ace of the day, with Chris Sale taking those honors on the late slate. The Rangers are the key bats for the early action and a mix of options on the two-game nightcap.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 25
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Corbin Burnes (BAL at MIA)
Orioles at Marlins – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 12:05 p.m. ET
$9,500 at DraftKings
$10,700 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool likes the park upgrade for RHP Corbin Burnes, who is performing like a top-5 pitcher. Over his last eight games, he has allowed eight home runs but only 14 total runs in 51 innings. His strikeouts are down to a career-low 8.4 per nine innings, though his pitch mix is similar to last year and his velocity is a tick higher across the board.
The Marlins are tied with the Washington Nationals for the fewest home runs in the league, with Miami scoring the second-fewest runs on the season. While the Marlins (362) are well above the dreadful Chicago White Sox (323), they trail the Seattle Mariners by a similar amount (390). The Marlins are in the middle of the pack when it comes to strikeouts, but that should not dissuade anyone from rolling with Burnes. Anything less than a quality start and a win — well, that will be disappointing for the former Cy Young Award winner.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Taj Bradley (TB at TOR)
Rays at Blue Jays – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$10,100 at FanDuel
$50 at Yahoo
After beginning the season on the injured reserve with a pectoral strain that occurred in spring training, RHP Taj Bradley has quietly been outstanding. Through a variety of scheduling quirks, between Tampa’s 6:50 pm. ET home starts on weekdays and typically not being on the featured Saturday slates, Bradley has not been in the featured player pool many times this season.
In his 13 starts, Bradley has averaged 93.1 pitches and a .196/.267/.363 triple-slash line, along with a 2.63 ERA, 3.29 xFIP and 3.69 xERA. The 23-year-old now has 200 inning under his belt in The Show over the last two seasons, with an excellent 10.95 strikeouts per nine innings. Toronto has scored the sixth-fewest runs (4.06) in the league this season, and Bo Bichette is on the injured reserve. Additionally, with key 2023 contributors Whit Merrifield and Matt Chapman playing for different teams and Brandon Belt “retired,” there has been quite the drop off in production compared to last year (4.61 runs per game), when the team plated the 14th-most runners in the league.
The projected lineup has only two hitters who have struck out above league average against right-handed pitching this season. That is offset with the bottom of the order looking like a three-up, three-down scenario with Ernie Clement, Leo Jimenez and soon to be retiring Kevin Kiermaier. It also doesn’t help that cleanup hitter Justin Turner has a .290 wOBA and .093 ISO against same-handed hurlers this season. Though, considering he will turn 40 in November, is it really a surprise?
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Chris Sale (ATL at NYM)
Braves at Mets – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:10 p.m. ET
$10,200 at DraftKings
$11,200 at FanDuel
$59 at Yahoo
After having his last two scheduled starts rained out, LHP Chris Sale has not pitched in 11 days. That is a bonus for the 35-year-old, who is in the midst of a Cy Young-worthy campaign. Even with the apex salary, Sale is the top priority for the two-game nightcap.
Because this is a short slate with sizable tournaments, differentiation will need to be found. Skipping Sale is one option, or taking a couple hitters against him is another strategy. It is worth noting that Francisco Lindor (13-for-31, .419, 2 doubles, 1 home run) and Jose Iglesias (11-for-33, .333, 2 doubles, 1 home run) have had individual success against Sale. Of course, they will be hard-pressed to do more than get an extra-base hit if Sale is dealing, but stranger things happen on the regular in baseball.
Oakland will be running out veteran RHP Ross Stripling, who has missed the last two months with a strained elbow. Prior to his injury, the 34-year-old had allowed 10 runs in 8.2 innings. He has made three rehabilitation starts, logging 52 and 56 pitches in the last two, with six earned runs in the 8.2 total innings.
Anaheim is rolling with LHP Kenny Rosenberg, who will be making only the 13th appearance in The Show, despite being selected all the way back in the 2016 MLB Draft. This makes the 29-year-old the Crash Davis of pitchers, having logged 735 MiLB innings after two season in the college ranks with Cal State Northridge.
Veteran RHP Luis Severino is the fourth and final option, going against the Atlanta offense. Strikeouts have been an issue for the 30-year-old veteran of nine MLB campaigns, falling from 9.9 to 8.0 to 6.8 per nine innings each of the last three seasons.
For advice on using the Post-Contest Simulator to improve your lineup study, check out Steve Buzzard’s guide on how to use simulations to refine your lineup study process!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Texas Rangers
Rangers vs. White Sox – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jonathan Cannon
DK Top Stack %: 16.2%
FD Top Stack %: 15.9%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool was impressed with Texas last night as the Rangers hung a 10-spot on the Chicago White Sox. Even with all of his foibles, at this point in time RHP Chris Flexen is the more accomplished pitcher when compared to rookie RHP Jonathan Cannon.
Cannon was projected to join the rotation next year, though another lost season and injuries pushed up his timeline. He is a middling prospect, but one capable of eating innings and potentially being comparable to a poor man’s Michael Wacha. Though it has only been 114 plate appearances, lefties have hammered Cannon with a .386 wOBA and a .269 ISO this season. Corey Seager and Nate Lowe each homered last night, and they look like the best lefties in the lineup today, along with Josh Smith.
Leody Taveras and Travis Jankowski are the discount dandies from the bottom of the lineup, with rookie Wyatt Langford and Adolis Garcia the targets from the heart of the order. Plus, leadoff man Marcus Semien is always in play, even as he goes through a bit of a downturn against same-handed hurlers this season.
Late Slate Target: Los Angeles Angels
Angels vs. Athletics – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Ross Stripling
DK Top Stack %: 16.1%
FD Top Stack %: 16.3%
The popular path will be to look to Atlanta against RHP Luis Severino since the bats are far more recognizable than any participating in the nightcap. However, the 4.6 dueling implied run totals for the Angels and Athletics should keep interest relatively strong in this matchup as well.
Los Angeles is sorely missing Mike Trout and, of course, Shohei Ohtani, but at least the flotsam and jetsam populating tonight’s lineup will have a fighting chance against RHP Ross Stripling. The well-traveled veteran has missed the last two months with a pectoral strain, and he was pretty, pretty bad prior to landing on the injured reserve. In 11 starts, he has been saddled with a 1-9 record while serving up a 5.82 ERA and 1.60 WHIP in just 55.2 innings. Stripling had a solid 2022 campaign with Toronto, but since then he has produced a dreadful 5.54 ERA and only 6.53 strikeouts per nine innings while allowing 1.62 home runs per nine in 144.2 frames split between San Francisco and Oakland.
Logan O’Hoppe, Brandon Drury and Mickey Moniak profile the best against Stripling, but the latter two are likely to be in the bottom third of the order. Former slugger Anthony Rendon has a .056 ISO against right-handed pitching over the last season and change, which is just pathetic. Luis Rengifo will at least make contact, and Taylor Ward has power if he can connect … ladies and gentlemen, the Angels!
Oakland is also worthy of our attention and likely will be more popular than the Halos. Shea Langeliers, Daz Cameron, Miguel Andujar and Brent Rooker are the most intriguing options, with Tyler Nevin lurking for some differentiation. If Nevin gains traction with The Masses, teammate Abraham Toro is a fine pivot at the same position.
The Lineup Generator at Stokastic offers exceptional value! Discover how to use it with our other MLB DFS tools by checking out our Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Sadly, as much as I love RHP Max Scherzer, we should be targeting Mad Max in the sports wagering world with impunity. Currently, the under on his 5.5 strikeouts stands out on Caesars, where it is available at +146 odds.
OddsShopper +EV bets show this wager has +139 “true odds” for Scherzer to fall short of six strikeouts, which brings a 2.9% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Fliff all the way down to a +105 line, which equates to a NEGATIVE 14% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Scherzer left his last start after just two innings and 53 pitches with arm fatigue. Interestingly enough, he is on regular rest, which is a bit of a surprise. The future Hall of Famer will be celebrating his 40th birthday on Saturday, which is a nod to his doggedness. In his six starts, he has one, six, six, three, four and four strikeouts on 53, 71, 95, 90, 77 and 57 pitches. The matchup against the ChiSox is sublime, but getting plus money for Scherzer to stay under six strikeouts is too enticing to pass up.
Other wagers appear and disappear within minutes once lineups are announced, making an OddsShopper Premium subscription crucial for seizing all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Thursday, July 25
Aside from Cleveland, which has a 1:10 p.m. ET start time, the rest of the slate looks to be escaping precipitation. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, check the top MLB Weather Report page for updates as the first pitch approaches.
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