Thursday is getaway day, with fewer teams in play, some afternoon action and then a festive four-game featured slate with a 7:07 p.m. ET first pitch on DraftKings and Yahoo. FanDuel is reaching forward for the two games in the 6 o’clock hour, creating a six-game featured slate. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Jack Flaherty as the safer option and Carlos Rodon as the tournament wild card with his strikeout potential. Detroit is a strong value stack that also rates out well for projected production against a rookie tonight.
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 27
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Jack Flaherty (DET at LAA)
Tigers at Angels – 3.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$10,800 at FanDuel
$56 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Jack Flaherty looking like the best option on DraftKings and Yahoo tonight. FanDuel is including the two games in the 6 o’clock hour, which brings RHPs Corbin Burnes and especially Zack Wheeler into the mix on the blue site.
Los Angeles has won four of the last five games, though a three-game sweep of Oakland should be taken with a grain of salt. Only twice this season has Flaherty suffered the ignominy of allowing more than three runs this season. The 28-year-old has a sterling 2.92 ERA, a 0.97 WHIP and the eighth-most strikeouts in the league. The last time Flaherty was this dominant was in the 2019 season with St. Louis. It is good to see him bounce back from a dreadful nine-game, late-season run after being acquired by the Baltimore Orioles.
Miguel Sano has returned after missing two months, but that is more of a benefit to DFS gamers than it is to the Angels. Sano produces multi-strikeout games like it is his job, which is fantasy gold for opposing hurlers. Even without Mike Trout and Anthony Rendon, the Halos do have some pop against righties this season, with the projected lineup boasting a .150 ISO. On the flipside, this motley crew has a .300 wOBA, 6.8% walk rate and a 28.0% strikeout rate in this same timeframe. Full steam ahead with Flaherty!
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP Carlos Rodon (NYY at TOR)
Yankees at Blue Jays – 3.7 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
$9,600 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$39 at Yahoo
This season, LHP Carlos Rodon has allowed five or more runs on three occasions, including each of his last two. In his last 8.2 combined innings, Atlanta and Boston knocked him around for 13 runs, including a trio of taters while drawing five walks.
The 31-year-old southpaw still has fantasy upside, but the current trend is not his friend. While Bo Bichette is back at the top of the lineup, he has struggled mightily against lefties this season, posting a .164 wOBA and a 0.020 ISO. It has been venerable veteran Justin Turner who has been the most productive of the Toronto hitters this year against left-handed hurlers. Danny Jansen and Davis Schneider at least have shown flashes, but otherwise there is more bark than actual bite with the Toronto bats.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees at Blue Jays – 4.6 implied runs
First Pitch: 7:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Jose Berrios
DK Top Stack %: 11.4%
FD Top Stack %: 10.6%
Where have all the strikeouts gone? In a crazy twist, RHP Jose Berrios has only eight strikeouts in his last 16.2 innings. This has led to six home runs and only two walks, though there is a cynical argument to be made that opposing hitters are liking what they see and putting the ball in play.
This has been a trend all season, with the 30-year-old posting a career-low 6.31 strikeouts per nine innings, which is 2.2 below last year and his overall career average. His pitch mix and speeds have been mostly the same as the last couple years, but the decline in production has still been steady.
The Yankees are without Giancarlo Stanton and Anthony Rizzo, and that means lineup promotions for Alex Verdugo and rookie Ben Rice. Juan Soto and Aaron Judge are still mashers, plus Trent Grisham has shown some pop when he makes contact this year, though that 28.1% strikeout rate is abysmal. Oswaldo Cabrera was called up from Triple-A, but he is more of a glove than a bat, and at this point DJ LeMahieu is just old hat.
Focus on the top five or six in the lineup, plus Grisham, wherever he ends up landing in the batting order.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Detroit Tigers
Tigers at Angels – 4.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:38 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Davis Daniel
DK Top Stack %: 17.8%
FD Top Stack %: 14.5%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Detroit offense today, and it is looking particularly good on DraftKings and Yahoo, still receiving positive leverage. This is likely to evaporate closer to first pitch, but it is a reminder that matchups make DFS, along with that pesky salary component.
Rookie Davis Daniel is barely a top-20 prospect for Anaheim. Shoulder issues and the dreaded Tommy John elbow surgery have derailed the development of Davis. The former seventh-round selection in the 2017 MLB Draft is now in his age-27 season, with just 12.1 innings in The Show to his credit. In his three outings, he does have a 2.19 ERA and 1.30 WHIP, but the NINE walks are very concerning. Expect crooked numbers in his near future.
The Motor City Kitties have been in a skid, losing nine of their last 12 games. Sadly, in this stretch, they have plated more than two runs only three times. Javier Baez and Kerry Carpenter are out with injuries, and former top selection and cleanup hitter Spencer Torkelson has been banished to the Triple-A Toledo Mud Hens. That leaves Riley Greene, veteran Mark Canha and Matt Vierling as the “best” remaining bats. Colt Keith still needs seasoning, but he should be near the top of the order, and fellow youngster Wenceel Perez is a perfectly average option — who at least is not in Triple-A.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight the under on Corbin Burnes‘ 5.5 strikeouts prop is one worth attacking. Currently this is available at -110 on BetMGM.
OddsShopper shows this bet has -124 “true odds” for under 5.5 strikeouts, which works out to a fantastic 5.6% expected ROI.
While Burnes is projected for just over 5.6 strikeouts, that is still a tick below the six he needs for this wager to fail.
We can see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by sharp book Pinnacle all the way down to a -150 line, which is beyond punitive.
Burnes is never a pitcher to take lightly, and the former Cy Young Award winner has a 2.35 ERA and 1.01 WHIP this year, which has him among the top 10 starters. He also has 94 strikeouts, which is in the top 25. However, his strikeout rate has slipped each of the last five seasons, down to a career-low 8.5 per nine innings. This will be a close wager, as Burnes has six or more strikeouts in three of his last six games, with exactly five in the other three. Texas does a decent job of limiting whiffs, so that is what has this wager with a 55% likelihood of falling short of the six-strikeout threshold.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Thursday, June 27
Thursday’s thinner slate has a mostly green light from Mother Nature, though be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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