Monday has a dispersed three-game featured slate, with an early start time of 3:07 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Hunter Brown and MacKenzie Gore as the two top pitching options for Monday’s action. The Coors Field Extravaganza will cast a long shadow over the offensive decisions, but Houston does look intriguing as an alternative stack. Going with the Mets against Gore will also provide direct leverage against the field.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | July 1
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Hunter Brown (HOU at TOR)
Astros at Blue Jays – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
$8,500 at DraftKings
$9,300 at FanDuel
$42 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool has RHP Hunter Brown as the most desirable of the half dozen starting pitchers today, though it is a close call. The 25-year-old had a rough start to his season, but in his last 10 starts he has been excellent. Across these 57.1 innings, he has a 2.20 ERA, 3.58 FIP, a 3.25 xFIP and 10.2 strikeouts per nine innings.
Most importantly for FanDuel, Brown has seven consecutive quality starts, which, of course, earns bonus points on the blue site. After a seven-game slide, Toronto has won three of the last five games, plating nine runners in each of the victories. The Blue Jays have scored the 24th-most runs this season, though they are still closer to league average than the terrible trio of the Athletics (306), Marlins (293) and White Sox (267).
While Vladimir Guerrero Jr. has been on a heater with a .379 wOBA and .256 ISO over the last 30 days against right-handed pitching, Spencer Horwitz is the only other hitter who has been competent, posting a .449 wOBA and a .174 ISO. Bo Bichette and George Springer have been ghosts, combining for a .260 wOBA and a .100 ISO. Ageless wonder Justin Turner has been making contact at least, while Dalton Varsho has provided power when he gets the bat on the ball.
This matchup is not a walk in the park, but it also is not particularly terrifying. That gives Brown the slimmest of edges over his lefty counterparts for cash games (H2Hs, 50/50s, 3-mans, etc.).
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP MacKenzie Gore (WSH vs. NYM)
Nationals vs. Mets – 4.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
$9,800 at DraftKings
$9,800 at FanDuel
$37 at Yahoo
June was rough for LHP MacKenzie Gore as he squared off against several top offenses. The 25-year-old allowed 18 runs, though three were unearned, on his way to a 5.13 ERA. He had a stellar 2.91 ERA closing out May, and over his last dozen starts, he has allowed more than two earned runs only twice, with five going to the Padres in San Diego last Tuesday and six to the Mets in Washington four weeks ago.
Gore has increased his strikeouts to a career-best 10.5 per nine innings while also decreasing his walks and lowering his ERA by nearly a full run, as compared to his first two seasons. New York has posted a 132 wRC+ against lefties this season, which is the second-best mark in the league. The top 5 in this order is not to be taken lightly, with switch-hitter Francisco Lindor, slugger Pete Alonso, catcher Francisco Alvarez, veteran J.D. Martinez and lefty Brandon Nimmo each boasting a .349 wOBA or better and a .207-plus ISO against southpaws.
Fortunately for Gore, the latter half of the lineup is either inexperienced or below replacement level against lefties. He will have to thread the needle on Bobby Bonilla Day, though the budding ace still rates out as a strong DFS option.
Main Slate Wild Card Pitching Target: LHP David Peterson (NYM at WSH)
Mets at Nationals – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 6:45 p.m. ET
$9,300 at DraftKings
$8,600 at FanDuel
$35 at Yahoo
The diehard season-long fantasy gamers were grabbing LHP David Peterson as a streamer shortly after lock yesterday. He is taking on a Nationals team that is lacking flash or substance. Outfielder Lane Thomas and lefty specialist Nick Senzel are the most feared hitters, with do-everything shortstop CJ Abrams also worthy of making Peterson nervous.
It is still a relatively small sample size, but Peterson has seen his strikeout rate dip from 25.7% (467 plate appearances) last year to 16.5% (121 PAs) this season. Washington does a great job of limiting strikeouts, with the projected lineup whiffing at a 16.9% rate against lefties this year and just 14.0% over the last two seasons combined.
The team is bereft of power, and the clock is sadly striking midnight on the Cinderella story of Joey Meneses, who burst on the scene a couple seasons ago as a 30-year-old rookie. It also appears that catcher Keibert Ruiz is going to continue to regress at the plate, which finally has the Nationals putting these former cleanup hitters at the back of the lineup.
Since there is a southpaw on the mound, Luis Garcia will likely be on the bench and veteran utilitymen Ildemaro Vargas (who turns 33 this month) and Harold Ramirez (in his age-30 season) will be in the heart of the order. Four weeks ago the Nationals were able to cobble together just two runs against Peterson, but they only struck out twice. The 28-year-old hurler does have 14 strikeouts in his last two starts, across 10.1 innings, so expect him to improve upon his prior effort.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Houston Astros
Astros at Blue Jays – 4.9 implied runs
First Pitch: 3:07 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Yariel Rodriguez
DK Top Stack %: 22.6%
FD Top Stack %: 22.3%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool knows that Coors Field will be well represented in tournaments today, so for those of you lucky enough to get in on the three-game slate, the Houston Astros will be the likely antidote for Rocky Mountain Fever.
Baseball nomad RHP Yariel Rodriguez began his journey as an 18-year-old in the Cuban League back in 2015 with Ganaderos de Camaguey while also getting time with the Cuban National Team. During the pandemic in 2020, he moved to Japan to play with the Chunichi Dragons for three seasons. He sat out the 2023 season in an effort to get an MLB contract, and the Dragons finally released him that fall. In February, Rodriguez inked a five-year, $32 million deal with Toronto.
Rodriguez can get into triple digits with his fastball, but he has not had much seasoning at the highest level of the game. The Cuban league is comparable to Double-A, while the Japanese league is more like Triple-A. The “27-year-old” does profile solidly with nearly a strikeout per inning, but control has been an issue with 6.11 walks per nine innings. Keep in mind that he had 20.1 innings in Triple-A this season and 14.6 strikeouts per nine innings, with another 17.2 innings in The Show.
Houston definitely misses Kyle Tucker, but the veteran team is still managing to get by without their second-best bat. Veteran stalwarts Jose Altuve and Alex Bregman are in good form, and, of course, Yordan Alvarez is one of the most feared hitters in the game. Jake Meyers can hold his own, and catcher Yainer Diaz looks like a budding star both at the plate and behind the dish.
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Main Slate Alternate Options
Coors Field – 11.5 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:41 p.m. ET
Opposing Starters: Does it matter?
DK Top Stack %: 60.3%
FD Top Stack %: 60.1%
The Coors Field Extravaganza is pushing 12 runs, with game-time temperatures in the mid-80s and a 7 to 12 mph breeze out to centerfield. RHP Bryse Wilson will be on the mound for Milwaukee, while LHP Austin Gomber will toe the rubber for Colorado.
The Brew Crew has the seventh-most runs in the league and the 11th-most total bases, but they are an inconsistent team from a game-to-game basis, with production ebbing and flowing from everywhere. Despite being able to put out a mostly right-handed lineup against southpaws, Joey Ortiz (neck/back) and former MVP and two-time batting champion Christian Yelich are the only members of the projected starting lineup with green across the board. Catcher William Contreras is close, but his lack of power has him falling short of creating a true trio to target.
Gomber has been dreadful since leaving St. Louis, so pretty much everyone is in play against him. In five starts this month, four of which were on the road, the 30-year-old has a 9.39 ERA and just 15 strikeouts in 23 total innings.
This has been the best season of RHP Bryce Wilson’s career, and the forever prospect is still only 26 years old. He was never able to break through with Atlanta, despite seeing action with the Braves in four different seasons, and his two years in Pittsburgh were pretty putrid. Last year Milwaukee used Wilson out of the bullpen 53 times, and he was competent enough to be given the chance to earn a spot in the starting rotation for this season.
His lack of strikeouts — around seven per nine innings — and propensity for allowing extra-base hits have not really got him into trouble yet this year, but the Regression Monster is lurking and ready to feast. Colorado has once again been dealing with injuries, and there are few bright spots with this offense. Ryan McMahon, Ezequiel Tovar and Brenton Doyle are the “best” options. Ancient Charlie Blackmon is still able to make noise every now and then, but he is mostly shouting at the clouds. Anyone else landing on the lineup card is fine, though pinpointing production is a guessing game.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
This afternoon, RHP Hunter Brown will be a major part of the DFS action, but he can also be targeted for the under on his 5.5 strikeouts, which is available at -140 on BetMGM.
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OddsShopper shows this bet has -161 “true odds” for Brown to fall under six strikeouts, which indicates there is a steady 5.7% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by sharp book Pinnacle at -214 and Fanatics dropping the threshold to 4.5 strikeouts with +115 odds.
Brown has recorded six or more strikeouts in each of his last six starts, so this wager is not for the faint of heart. He projects for 5.6 strikeouts today, which is above the 5.5 milestone but clearly below the six needed for this wager to lose. The projected lineup for Toronto has a 16.1% strikeout rate against right-handed hurlers this season, with that mark barely increasing to 16.6% since the start of last year.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Monday, July 1
There is nothing wild to report for the three games today, particularly since only two are outdoors. Though, as always, be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
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