Monday brings an eight-game featured slate with a 7:10 p.m. ET first pitch on FanDuel and DraftKings. Yahoo is locking at 6:40 p.m. ET for a robust 11-game fantasy slate. Today we’ll explore MLB DFS projections and use Stokastic’s tools to find out how to build MLB DFS stacks, pinpoint the top pitchers and create optimal daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to Brandon Pfaadt, Chris Sale and Luis Gil as key aces, while the New York Yankees and Arizona Diamondbacks provide stacking opportunities for today’s featured MLB DFS picks.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Aug. 12
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP: Chris Sale (ATL at SF)
Braves at Giants – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:45 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$11,200 at FanDuel
$55 at Yahoo
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Pitchers Tool has LHP Chris Sale as the best pitching option for all formats. While he does not have a no-hitter like his counterpart LHP Blake Snell, he does have an “immaculate” inning with a nine-pitch, three-strikeout frame back in 2019.
In a plot twist, the current active roster for the San Francisco Giants has a 151 wRC+ (weighted runs created plus is an advanced metric that neutralizes variables, such as park factors, setting a league-average scoring efficiency benchmark of 100), which indicates the team is creating runs 51% more efficiently than league average when facing lefties. Keep in mind efficiency is different than volume, but this is still an impressive figure.
The team does have a 24.7% strikeout rate against southpaws, with tonight’s projected lineup having a 28.3% rate since the start of last season. That plays right into the strength of Sale, who has a 31.1% strikeout rate himself during that same timeframe.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI vs. COL)
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
$8,600 at DraftKings
$9,200 at FanDuel
$45 at Yahoo
The Rockies just spent the last week in Coors Field, which means they have acclimated to how pitches are impacted by altitude. Phoenix has an elevation around 1,000 feet above sea level, but that is still 4,000 feet below Denver.
Colorado is a bottom-5 team with an 86 wRC+ on the road and an 88 wRC+ against right-handed pitching. This has been a strong year for RHP Brandon Pfaadt, who has improved his numbers across the board from his rookie campaign. In his last seven outings, Pfaadt has a 2.66 ERA, 2.64 FIP and 3.17 xFIP. He is striking out nearly one batter per inning and continues to have impeccable control, with only 1.9 walks per nine innings this season. Though planning on a win is often folly, Arizona is currently a -300 moneyline favorite.
Wild Card Pitching Target: RHP Luis Gil (NYY at CHW)
Yankees at White Sox – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
$9,000 at DraftKings
$10,800 at FanDuel
$51 at Yahoo
This season, RHP Luis Gil has allowed two runs or fewer in 15 of 22 (68%) of his starts and just three runs in three others. The 26-year-old was previously the 12th-ranked prospect in the New York system, and he has been producing beyond all expectations.
Walks are still an issue with 4.44 per nine, but that is down a little from his 4.71 career rate. The strikeouts are gold with 10.56 per nine this season, and that is going to be a problem for the White Sox. Though the streak ended at 21, Chicago has lost the last three games and could be swept at home against New York. Gil lands in the wild card section with his lofty salary indicative of perfection, though to be clear, he is absolutely in play tonight.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Yankees at White Sox – 5.8 implied runs
First Pitch: 8:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: LHP Ky Bush
DK Top Stack %: 19.4%
FD Top Stack %: 19.6%
The Stokastic MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool is ecstatic that LHP Ky Bush is getting another turn in the Chicago rotation. The 24-year-old is the 14th-ranked prospect in the ChiSox system, though he was not expected to be called up to The Show until next year.
Bush came over as part of the Lucas Giolito trade when the Angels made the ill-fated attempt to go all in at the trade deadline last year. Bush has seen his development delayed with various injuries, and he has a grand total of 19 innings at the Triple-A level, all this year. He projects as a fifth starter at best, with control and a lack of strikeouts limiting his upside.
The only thing working in Bush’s favor tonight is that the Yankees are better against right-handed pitchers. Of course, they are still a top-10 team against southpaws, and Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Giancarlo Stanton make life difficult for all hurlers. Jazz Chisholm lacks power against same-handed pitchers, but he does have a decent contact rate. Of course, this fills up the outfield slots, so full stacks will need to include the likes of Alex Verdugo, Anthony Volpe or catcher Austin Wells. Not to bury the lede, but Gleyber Torres actually profiles well against Bush, making him an interesting one-off on par with Judge and Soto.
Looking to enhance your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Watch Steve Buzzard’s tutorial to learn how to use simulations to help you fine-tune your MLB DFS picks!
Main Slate Secondary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Rockies – 5.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 9:40 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Bradley Blalock
DK Top Stack %: 9.0%
FD Top Stack %: 8.6%
Tonight RHP Bradley Blalock will be making his first start for the Rockies. The 23-year-old was drafted out of high school in the 32nd round of the 2019 MLB Draft by the Boston Red Sox. Last summer, the Milwaukee Brewers acquired him in the Luis Urias trade, only to flip him to Colorado at the trade deadline this year.
Blalock began the season in Double-A, so it is more of a desperation move to give him a spot start tonight. He is not yet ready for prime time, and though he has decent control, all of his pitches are average at best and based on angles and movement, rather than velocity. The Diamondbacks have scored 23 runs in the last two games and now lead the league with 5.24 runs per tilt.
Switch-hitter Ketel Marte is expected to return to action after missing a couple of game, though Christian Walker remains on the injured reserve. Josh Bell has filled in admirably for Walker, and the well-traveled switch-hitter has been on a tear since joining Arizona. Corbin Carroll and Joc Pederson have also been ridiculous over the last month with a .468 ISO and .512 ISO, respectively, against right-handed pitching.
Aging slugger Eugenio Suarez can still hammer same-handed hurlers, with speedster Jake McCarthy and catcher Adrian Del Castillo forming a nice secondary stack from the back half of the order.
Unlock the full potential of Stokastic’s Lineup Generator and elevate your MLB DFS picks with our detailed Lineup Generator Guide!
Featured MLB Bet of the Day from OddsShopper
It has been a while since a home run prop was featured in this space, so let’s take a look at Yandy Diaz with a longshot wager.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on BetMGM, where it is available at +1050 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has +915 “true odds” for the right-hander to poke one over the fence, which brings a whopping 13.13% expected ROI.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by Hard Rock posting a +600 line, and that equates to a NEGATIVE 31% expected ROI. Be a savvy shopper!
Clearly home runs are a fickle market, and there is a tremendous advantage to using OddsShopper to sift through all of the options. It is also crucial to remember that these are measured on a long-term time horizon and sizing bets is key to take advantage of these opportunities. When using a $1,000 bankroll, OddsShopper indicates that a $4 wager is appropriate to place on this opportunity.
Diaz will be facing LHP Framber Valdez, who has allowed a solid 11 home runs on the season, but nine of those have been to right-handed batsmen. While it is an extremely small sample size, it is good to see that Diaz has gone 3-for-6 (.500) against Valdez in his career, and though he has only a double among those base knocks, he also has four walks, indicating he sees Valdez pretty well.
The other reason for the long odds is that Diaz is more about gap power than home runs, with 10 longballs in 435 at-bats this season. He is a non-traditional leadoff man, which does give him the chance for five plate opportunities more often than not, and every little edge is important for this wager.
Final MLB DFS Thoughts for Monday, Aug. 12
There is a little bit of afternoon rain in Boston, but things should clear up around first pitch. This is the ESPN Monday featured game, so it should play, even if there is a late start. Before finalizing your MLB DFS picks, be sure to consult the top MLB Weather Report page for the latest updates as game time nears.
