MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | Sept. 1
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Since his no-hitter in Washington at the end of July, Cease has logged 28 innings, a 3.86 ERA, 3.64 FIP and 3.91 xFIP. During this stretch he has been unlucky with a .338 average on balls in play but continued his strong strikeout production of 9.32 per nine innings, allowing just two home runs in these appearances.
Over the last 30 days, Tampa has tallied just 92 runs (3.41 per game), which is the third fewest in the league during this stretch. In this period, the Rays also have a 27.0% strikeout rate, which is the third highest, just barely behind Seattle (27.4%). Yandy Diaz (knee) was held out of Saturday’s matchup, and he may miss this afternoon’s action as well. That still leaves veterans Christopher Morel, Brandon Lowe and Josh Lowe (no relation), with youngsters Junior Caminero and Jose Caballero rounding out the top 5. Journeyman Jonny DeLuca is the only player in the projected lineup with a sub-25% strikeout rate against right-handed pitchers this season, while the lineup averages 27.8%.
Anything less than a quality start and half a dozen strikeouts from Cease should be considered a severe disappointment. It is also a bonus to have this game in pitching-friendly Tropicana Field.
In his last six games, Manaea has recorded double-digit strikeouts three times: In Arizona in his last start, in St. Louis and against Minnesota. Across 37.2 innings during this stretch, he has a lofty 11.47 strikeouts per nine innings, a 2.87 ERA, 2.64 FIP and 2.88 xFIP. The active roster for Chicago has a 73 wRC+ against southpaws this season, ahead of only the equally miserable Miami Marlins (71 wRC+), with both squads a full standard deviation behind St. Louis (85 wRC+).
It is hard to have a matchup better than this one, aside from it being back in pitching-friendly Citi Field. Andrew Vaughn and Luis Robert are the only worrisome bats, with neither being particularly daunting, especially Robert, who has struggled to make contact all season and sports a combined 34.8% strikeout rate against pitchers of either handedness.
The Marlins are at least within hailing distance of league average against right-handed pitching, but when considering Webb’s ground ball-inducing ways and the temperatures being in the low-60s, it is hard to generate much concern about Miami’s offense. This team has been plucky, only being shut out once in the last 38 games, though with Webb rating out as a top-25 starter, he should be able to mitigate any furor from the visiting batsmen.
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: New York Yankees
Speaking of home runs, Aaron Judge has 51 on the season, including 12 in August. Wingman Juan Soto is not far behind, with 37 on the season and 10 last month. This duo is first and second atop the OPS ranks, and what they have done over the last 30 days would not even be allowed in video games. Judge has a .571 wOBA and a .488 ISO in 103 plate appearances, while Soto checks in at .402 wOBA and a .362 ISO in 113 plate appearances. This duo is not alone, with rookie Austin Wells (.403 wOBA, .222 ISO, 82 PAs), Giancarlo Stanton (.321 wOBA, .253 ISO, 83 PAs) and Jazz Chisholm (.374 wOBA, .286 ISO, 67 PAs) all putting the hurt on baseballs.
Anthony Rizzo is expected to return from the 60-day injured reserve after successfully completing his minor league rehabilitation stint. He suffered a right-forearm injury after colliding with pitcher Brennan Bernadino back in June. While he was not particularly productive in his five MiLB games, the 34-year-old should not take too long to ramp back up, particularly having the luxury of batting in the bottom third of the order while he regains his form.
Over his last nine starts, Mikolas has recorded more than three strikeouts only once while allowing a plethora of contact. His propensity for fly balls is not going to serve him well against this lineup of mashers, so expect crooked numbers on the scoreboard.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Minnesota Twins
The trio to target this afternoon is Royce Lewis, Matt Wallner and Trevor Larnach. Expect Larnach to be pulled if a lefty like Ryan Yarbrough, Brendon Little or Genesis Cabrera come in from the bullpen, but he should get two cracks at Rodriguez to earn his fantasy points.
The second wave of options include switch-hitters Willi Castro and Carlos Santana, with catcher Ryan Jeffers in play as well. Veteran Max Kepler is having a down season, but he can still show out at any time with the platoon advantage.
Late Slate Primary Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Across his last three outings in Triple-A, Wrobleski has logged 15.1 innings and a nifty 19 strikeouts but an abhorrent 12 walks. This season he has 25 MLB innings and a 4.68 ERA that looks a lot better than his 5.83 xERA, 6.45 FIP and 5.07 xFIP. The 23-year-old is still honing his craft, but a rate of 6.5 strikeouts per nine innings is not going to get it done against the pros.
Lourdes Gurriel, Josh Bell, plus journeyman Eugenio Suarez and Randal Grichuk are the primary targets at the top of the order. Corbin Carroll has been on an epic heater the last 30 days, with a .424 wOBA and a .402 ISO. Last night he had a stand-up, inside-the-park home run that saw him at second base around the time the ball touched down. That was even more impressive than Friday, when he got his third career round-tripper against fellow lefty Clayton Kershaw. Jake McCarthy is also in play since he at least makes contact against same-handed hurlers, plus he and Carroll both have the green light to run when they are on the base paths.
Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach will be taking on the Phillies in their home park tonight, with this matchup being featured on ESPN Sunday Night Baseball.
The OddsShopper model has him for around 5.7 strikeouts tonight, which is still below the 6.5 strikeouts being offered across various sportsbooks.
Currently, this opportunity stands out on Fanatics where it is available at -125 odds.
OddsShopper’s +EV MLB bets show this wager has -125 “true odds” for the youngster to fall short of seven strikeouts, which works out to a strong 3.9% expected ROI.
It is important to note that the 24-year-old has been outstanding, with eight, nine, eight, seven, 10, 11 and eight strikeouts in his last seven appearances. That, of course, is why tonight’s benchmark is set at 6.5 whiffs instead of the more typical 5.5 for above average pitchers. Kyle Schwarber (29.9%) and Brandon Marsh (31.7%) are the only players in the projected lineup who are striking out above league average this season against southpaws. The key for this wager will be having Trea Turner, Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm and Bryson Stott use their plate discipline to burn through some of Schwellenbach’s pitch count.
In his two prior starts against the Phillies, the rookie struck out nine and six, with the former occurring less than two weeks ago. The 56% probability of Schwellenbach failing to get to that seventh strikeout is what makes this wager appealing.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
