Sunday’s fun begins at 1:35 p.m. ET on DraftKings, FanDuel and Yahoo. Before we get to our MLB DFS picks, as always, we will use Stokastic’s tools to help identify today’s MLB DFS stacks, key pitchers and daily fantasy baseball lineups. Look to the pitchers in the Pacific Northwest, with Ranger Suarez and Garrett Crochet the featured-slate aces. For offense, it is the Phillies and Reds on the main slate, with the Diamondbacks ready to strike for the afternoon slate.
MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers and Top Stacks | June 30
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MLB DFS Picks: Spotlight Pitchers
Main Slate Primary Pitching Target: LHP Garrett Crochet (CHW vs. COL)
White Sox vs. Rockies – 3.3 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:10 p.m. ET
$10,200 at DraftKings
$10,900 at FanDuel
$60 at Yahoo
The Stokastic Top Pitchers Tool approves of the various MLB DFS salary algorithms giving rookie LHP Garrett Crochet an apex-level salary. The lefty is second in the league with 130 strikeouts, trailing only Tyler Glasnow while pacing the pack with 12.4 strikeouts per nine innings.
The projected lineup for Colorado has five different players who have struck out 29% or more of the time this season against southpaws. This collective crew does have some pop, but with a combined 30% strikeout rate against lefties since the start of last season, it is worth the risk. Salary is the only real impediment for rostering Crochet this afternoon.
Main Slate Secondary Pitching Target: LHP Ranger Suarez (PHI vs. MIA)
Phillies vs. Marlins – 3.2 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
$10,500 at DraftKings
$10,200 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo
This has been a tremendous season for LHP Ranger Suarez, who is battling teammate Zack Wheeler and Tyler Glasnow for the best odds of winning the National League Cy Young Award. The 28-year-old is putting it all together this season, cutting his walk rate nearly in half from the prior two campaigns, down to 1.74 per nine innings.
Suarez always has been good at getting ground balls with a 53.9% rate for his career, but adding in nearly a strikeout per inning this season is what has pushed him over the top. The Marlins are a bottom-3 team in most offensive metrics this season and there are more strikeouts from Miami when lefties are on the mound. F0r those looking for a little salary relief, RHP Taj Bradley is at home against the Nationals, with Tropicana Field being a pitching-friendly venue. RHP Freddie Peralta has been uneven with his performances this season, but he rates out as a top-5 option as well at home against a pesky Chicago Cubs offense.
Late Slate Primary Pitching Target: RHP Brandon Pfaadt (ARI vs. OAK)
Diamondbacks vs. Athletics – 3.4 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
$8,700 at DraftKings
$10,600 at FanDuel
$48 at Yahoo
There are plenty of pitching options with the four-game afternoon action, particularly in the Pacific Northwest, where RHPs Luis Castillo and Joe Ryan are toeing the rubber as the Mariners host the Minnesota Twins. In Arizona, where the Chase Field roof will be closed, RHP Brandon Pfaadt will be facing the anemic Oakland offense.
Pfaadt provides a significant savings when compared to Ryan and Castillo on FanDuel, though it is not as dramatic of a discount on DraftKings and Yahoo. While the Athletics popped off for nine runs on Friday night, they were held scoreless yesterday. The A’s have the second most strikeouts in the league and over the last 27 games, the team has scored three or fewer runs 22 times (81%). Enjoy!
MLB DFS Picks: Top Stacks
Main Slate Primary Target: Cincinnati Reds
Reds at Cardinals – 4.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 2:15 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Lance Lynn
DK Top Stack %: 7.1%
FD Top Stack %: 7.2%
It is warm and humid in St. Louis, with game time temperatures in the mid-80s. RHP Lance Lynn continues to beat up on bad teams, but things are precarious against good offenses. The Reds have a good offense that is great in its home ballpark, but unlike the Colorado Rockies, it is functional on the road as well.
Across five June starts, Lynn has allowed 18 runs in 24.1 innings, with 1.39 baserunners per frame. He has ceded three home runs in his last two starts, though he is still striking out nearly one batter per inning. Having spent most of the last seven seasons in the American League, the current Reds roster has only 58 collective at-bats against the 37-year-old hurler.
Elly De La Cruz, Jeimer Candelario, Will Benson, Nick Martini and Noelvi Marte each have posted a .190 ISO or higher against right-handed pitching over the last season and change. Yes, the latter two feel like “create a player” types, but they do provide savings. Jonathan India, Spencer Steer and Jake Fraley should be in the top half of the order, and they are very much in play against Lynn.
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Main Slate Secondary Target: Philadelphia Phillies
Phillies vs. Marlins – 5.0 implied runs
First Pitch: 1:35 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Yonny Chirinos
DK Top Stack %: 8.3%
FD Top Stack %: 8.1%
The Philadelphia understudies disappointed yesterday, actually losing 3-2 to the Marlins. Just two runs against RHP Roddery Munoz was disappointing, but that should not dissuade anyone from going back to the well this afternoon against RHP Yonny Chirinos.
Chirinos has survived his two starts this season, allowing just three runs in 10 innings, with a trio of walks and 11 strikeouts. The 30-year-old has allowed only four extra-base hits, but considering he has suffered a .200 ISO to lefties and righties over the last two years, he is on borrowed time. Strikeouts have never really been part of Chirinos’ repertoire, and he has a pitiful 15.4% strikeout rate across his last 411 batters faced.
The absence of Bryce Harper, Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto is allowing the likes of Brandon Marsh, Kody Clemens and David Dahl prominent placement in the batting order, along with the remaining regulars. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos profile well against Chirinos, with Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm in the next wave of targets.
Late Slate Target: Arizona Diamondbacks
Diamondbacks vs. Athletics – 5.1 implied runs
First Pitch: 4:10 p.m. ET
Opposing Starter: RHP Luis Medina
DK Top Stack %: 16.1%
FD Top Stack %: 16.4%
The Stokastic Top Stacks Tool likes the Dodgers against the San Francisco bullpen today, but that is where most gamers will land by default. Arizona will not be overlooked, but the Diamondbacks do have a nice matchup against RHP Luis Medina.
In his last four starts, Medina has been in a funky, cold stretch with a 7.35 ERA, a 5.17 FIP and a 6.35 xFIP. He also has a paltry 5.4 strikeouts per nine innings, though to his credit, he has allowed only a pair of round-trippers. Medina has only a 20.5% strikeout rate across his last 601 batters faced, with a 10.8% walk rate. Same-handed power hitters have hammered him for a .210 ISO in this stretch, but do not skip over the lefties.
Christian Walker seems all but preordained to hit a home run, with Lourdes Gurriel and Eugenio Suarez also profiling well against their fellow righty. The top of the order brings switch-hitter Ketel Marte, along with lefties Corbin Carroll and Joc Pederson. Carroll has been nowhere near the production level that earned him the National League Rookie of the Year honor last season, so skipping him does provide differentiation and savings.
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Featured MLB Bet of the Day | MLB DFS Picks Today
Tonight Gunnar Henderson’s home run prop is showing strong value. Currently, this is available at +650 on Caesars.
OddsShopper shows this bet has +603 “true odds” for Henderson to take one out of the park, which indicates there is a healthy 14% expected ROI.
Home runs, of course, are fickle to predict, so sizing your wager accordingly is key. There is only a 14% likelihood that Henderson drops a dinger, so a long-term time horizon is key.
We can also see how important it is to shop the odds, as evidenced by ESPN Bet and FanDuel with +450 and +440, respectively.
Baltimore is atop the league for home runs and Henderson leads the Batters of Birdland with 26 himself. That is only two shy of last year’s total in 238 fewer at-bats. The 23-yeaer-old did not get one for his birthday yesterday, but he did have two hits, including a double. He has two home runs in his last five games and eight for the month. There is some precipitation risk for this game, so keep tabs on the forecast. On last thing, do not let the lefty-lefty matchup with Andrew Heaney make you nervous, Henderson has a .275 ISO in his 115 same-handed plate appearances this season, including five home runs, three triples and four doubles.
Other wagers are continually popping up and disappearing every few minutes as lineups are being announced, which is why it is key to get an OddsShopper Premium subscription to take advantage of all opportunities.
Final MLB DFS Picks & Thoughts for Sunday, June 30
The heat and humidity continue to ramp up in Boston, creating a good chance for afternoon showers. If one occurs over the park, there could be quite the deluge. Baltimore is in a similar situation, though that is the ESPN Sunday Night Baseball game, so it is not on the main slate. Be sure to check in with your favorite MLB Weather Report page closer to first pitch for updates before making your MLB DFS picks.
Before you finalize your MLB DFS picks, check out today’s Stokastic MLB Live Before Lock Show, at 12:30 p.m. ET brought to you by DraftKings Pick6 – new users, use this link to receive $50 with your first $5 play!
