In typical Tuesday fashion, we have a massive 10-game MLB slate that locks at 7:05 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Tuesday, June 4
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Orioles-Blue Jays: Corbin Burnes
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 14.8%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $10,000
As a wise man once said, ‘if it ain’t broke, don’t fix it,’ and that mantra applies here with another Orioles right-hander standing out as the top contrarian pitcher on the slate. After Grayson Rodriguez came through in a big way for us last night, we’ll look to Corbin Burnes to provide us similar contrarian upside tonight. With 10 games in play and good pitching options floating around every price point, ownership is pretty spread out among arms. As of this writing, seven pitchers are projected to be somewhere between 18.5% and 29.2% owned on DraftKings. Burnes is not, however, and he is one of the best differentiators on the entire slate.
Burnes is averaging 19.9 fantasy points per game, a 2.35 ERA and a 1.06 WHIP, and he has 71 strikeouts against just 20 walks through 72.2 innings. Though his 2.84 xERA calls for slight regression, Burnes still projects to be one of the best pitchers in baseball, and there’s a lot to like about tonight even in a tough spot against the Blue Jays. With other name-brand pitchers like George Kirby and Max Fried in better spots at slightly cheaper price tags, it’s not all that surprising that Burnes is falling through the cracks a bit. That said, Burnes’ ceiling is still sky high, and playing him in tournaments is an easy way to get different without sacrificing any upside.
As of this writing, Burnes is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 14.8% of the time this slate plays out, yet only 9.0% of lineups are expected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Reds-Rockies: Rockies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.9%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.0%
With the Reds facing Ty Blach in Coors and the Cubs facing Chris Flexen in Wrigley with winds blowing out at 10 mph, ownership is very concentrated among stacks. As of this writing, 26.4% of the total ownership on this slate is expected to go to players from the Reds and Cubs. While those two teams are phenomenal in their own right, that leaves a bunch of contrarian stacks that would likely be getting love on most normal slates. Colorado has emerged as the best of the bunch and is the top contrarian stack on DraftKings.
While it makes sense that the Reds are getting a bunch of love matched up with Blach in Coors, it’s a bit surprising the other side of this game is getting slept on in such a huge manner. The Rockies are hardly ever a popular stack, but they’re facing a pitcher in Montas who leaves a lot to be desired with a 4.72 xERA and .344 xWOBA. Montas has been a pitcher the field has liked to pick on as recently as his last start. While it was a smaller day slate, the Cardinals were the most popular stack against Montas in Great American Ballpark. Now, albeit on a much larger slate, the Rockies are projected for less than 5% ownership as a whole on DraftKings. Though they aren’t the likeliest offense to break tonight’s slate, the Rockies have massive upside against a shaky pitcher in Montas, and they are coming in criminally underowned.
Colorado currently projects to be the top stack 6.9% of the time this slate plays out, but only 4.0% of the field is expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Braves, Orioles, Tigers
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