We’re back with an eight-game MLB slate that locks early at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, June 3
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Orioles-Blue Jays: Orioles
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 16.1%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,400
Even with only eight games on tonight’s docket, ownership at pitcher is extremely spread out. As of this writing, eight arms are projected to be somewhere between 18.5% and 28.6% owned on DraftKings. Orioles right-hander Grayson Rodriguez is not one of those pitchers.
He is averaging 19.4 fantasy points per game while sporting a 3.53 ERA, 1.33 WHIP, 61 strikeouts and 21 walks across 51 innings, and though he’s missed some time with right shoulder inflammation, Rodriguez remains one of the top young arms in baseball. Plus, tonight he’s falling completely through the cracks on DraftKings.
Coming off a rookie season in which he showed signs of being a top-of-the-rotation starter, Rodriguez has backed that up with an even stronger sophomore campaign. Although his 3.79 xERA calls for very slight regression, Rodriguez’s 27.9 strikeout rate gives him exactly the kind of upside we are looking for when spending up on a contrarian pitcher. There’s definitely some opportunity cost in rostering Rodriguez over one of the more established aces toeing the rubber tonight. However, he has as high of a ceiling as any pitcher on the slate.
As of this writing, Rodriguez is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 16.1% of the time this slate plays out. With only 9.8% of lineups expected to roster him, he stands out as the top contrarian pitcher on the board.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Brewers-Phillies
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 8.4%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 4.6%
Unlike at pitcher where ownership is pretty spread out, three stacks are projected to get the majority of love tonight. As of this writing, 33.5% of the total ownership on this slate is going to the Reds, Diamondbacks and Giants. While these three offenses look very good in their own rights, almost every other stack is going to be contrarian. The Phillies currently stand out as the best of the bunch, and there is a ton to like about them in a matchup with Bryse Wilson.
While it makes sense that the Reds are getting a bunch of love matched up with Ryan Feltner in Coors, it’s a bit surprising the Phillies are getting slept on. The main pieces of Philadelphia’s lineup are expensive, but this is one of the best lineups in baseball facing a pitcher who is due for major negative regression. Wilson is sporting a respectable 3.19 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, .314 WOBA, 39 strikeouts and 19 walks in 48 innings this season. However, his underlying numbers don’t look nearly as pretty, as his 4.75 xERA and .344 xWOBA are much more indicative of the pitcher he actually is. Although there’s no guarantee that Wilson’s regression will hit tonight, it’s rare to get a team with as much upside as the Phillies in a such a good spot at minimal ownership.
Philadelphia currently projects to be the top stack 8.4% of the time this slate plays out, but only 4.6% of the field is expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Brewers, Rangers, Orioles
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