Coming off the All-Star break, MLB returns with a massive 11-game slate and no major weather concerns anywhere. With Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s explore the player pool to identify the top contrarian picks and stacks for today’s MLB action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, July 19
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Red Sox-Dodgers: Nick Pivetta
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 11.0%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $8,800
Even with 11 games in play and plenty of good pitchers toeing the rubber, there aren’t that many that look great from a DFS perspective tonight. As such, the ones that do are getting almost all of the ownership on DraftKings. Gerrit Cole, Luis Castillo, Sonny Gray, Hunter Brown and Chris Bassitt are projected to be a combined 113.6% owned. While all five of those pitchers are getting love for a reason, that leaves a bunch of intriguing contrarian options for tournaments.
Though Nick Pivetta has some boom-or-bust tendencies, he has been solid for the Red Sox this season. He comes into tonight’s action with a 4.18 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 88 strikeouts and 20 walks over 75.1 innings, but his 3.74 xERA is more indicative of the pitcher he actually is. Despite a brutal matchup in Los Angeles against the Dodgers, Pivetta has just as high of a ceiling as any pitcher on tonight’s slate. He is currently striking out 28.8% of the hitters he faces, and he has undeniable upside in any matchup.
As of this writing, Stokastic’s tools have Pivetta being a top-2 pitcher 11% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 4.7% of lineups expected to roster him, Pivetta stands out as a differentiator in GPPs.
For more insights on using the Post-Contest Simulator to enhance your lineup analysis, check out Steve Buzzard’s comprehensive guide on how to use simulations for improved results.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Red Sox-Dodgers: Red Sox
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 5.7%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.9%
As of this writing, only the Giants and Royals are projected to be double-digit owned as a stack, with the Angels approaching them. Every other stack on this slate will be somewhat contrarian, and the Red Sox stand out as the best of the bunch.
The Red Sox stack was extremely popular in every game they played against Oakland this weekend, but now the field is completely bailing on them tonight in Los Angeles.
While the ballpark and weather conditions were certainly more conducive to hitting in Fenway during the day than they are at Dodger Stadium at night, Los Angeles is still not a bad place for hitting. Plus, the Red Sox have shown enough power and speed upside to warrant consideration on every slate.
Boston doesn’t really stand out in any sort of way from a projection standpoint matched up with young Dodgers right-hander Gavin Stone. Stone has been pretty solid this season, and for the most part he hasn’t really been a pitcher to attack. Coming off back-to-back rough outings, however, Stone is not in great form, and Boston’s lineup is more than capable of making him pay if he starts falling behind hitters.
Though the Red Sox’s likelihood of success might not be quite as high as some of the teams picking up ownership, their upside when they do get there is comparable to any other team on the slate. The Red Sox are projected to be the top stack 5.7% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 2.9% of lineups are expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Braves, Padres, Astros
