We’re back with an eight-game MLB Monday night slate and no real weather concerns anywhere. Leveraging Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stacks Tool and Top Pitchers Tool, let’s dive into the player pool to uncover the most effective contrarian picks and stacks for today’s MLB games.
Standing out in MLB DFS tournaments requires strategic differentiation. Without unique contrarian picks like those highlighted below, it can be challenging to make your lineup shine. Subscribe now to gain access to our top-tier resources, including the Lineup Generator, our MLB DFS simulation tools, and our industry-leading MLB DFS projections.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, August 12
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Brewers-Dodgers: Freddy Peralta
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 18.4%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $9,300
With only eight games in play tonight, ownership at pitcher is expected to be pretty condensed. As of this writing, Chris Sale, Blake Snell and Luis Gil are projected to be a combined 106.8% owned on DraftKings. While Sale will probably end up the highest of the bunch, expect to see a lot of lineups with some combination of those three pitchers. As a result of Sale, Snell and Gil getting so much love, pitchers like Freddy Peralta and Pablo Lopez are falling through the cracks in matchups that aren’t as enviable. While I like both Peralta and Lopez for tournament purposes, Peralta is the top arm to target in GPPs.
Peralta is averaging 17.9 DraftKings points per game while sporting a 4.02 ERA, 1.22 WHIP, 155 strikeouts and 47 walks. Striking out 29.4% of hitters, Peralta remains one of the highest-upside arms in all of MLB DFS. Consistency has long been Peralta’s problem, and his game log is indicative of a pitcher who struggles to get out of his own way. That said, in any given start, even against a tough opponent like the Dodgers, Peralta’s ceiling is as high or higher than any other pitcher toeing the rubber. Given his inconsistencies and the fact that he’s priced the same as Snell on DraftKings, it’s not surprising that many are overlooking him. However, when searching for differentiators, few players offer the leverage that Peralta provides in this spot.
Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool projects Peralta to be a top-2 pitcher 18.4% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings. With only 11.9% of lineups expected to roster him, Peralta offers an easy way to stand out without sacrificing any upside.
Interested in enhancing your lineup analysis with the Post-Contest Simulator? Check out Steve Buzzard’s guide on how to use simulations to refine your results.
MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Rangers-Red Sox: Red Sox
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 9.0%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 5.3%
Similar to ownership at pitcher, where three players are projected to get the majority of love, the Yankees, Blue Jays and Diamondbacks are a combined 38.7% owned on DraftKings, per our projections. While the Yankees will be the highest-owned team, pretty much every other offense outside of those three will be somewhat contrarian. Among these, the Red Sox stand out, with Rafael Devers and the rest of the lineup being the top contrarian stack available.
It’s not often the third-ranked team in Stokastic’s Top Stacks Tool is projected to be the highest-leveraged stack on the board, but Boston fits that bill tonight. Matched up with Tyler Mahle, the Red Sox aren’t in as good of a spot on paper as teams like the Yankees and Diamondbacks. Making just his second start of the season, the oft-injured Mahle enters tonight’s contest with a ton of question marks. This wouldn’t be the first time a pitcher was OK in his first start back only to get pummeled in his next outing. While it would be a mistake to simply assume Mahle will fail, the field has minimal interest in stacking Boston tonight, and there are plenty of scenarios where things could go sideways for him.
The Red Sox are projected to be the top stack 9.0% of the time this slate plays out on DraftKings, but only 5.3% of lineups are expected to stack them.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Pirates, Padres, Braves, Giants
