In typical Friday night fashion, we have a monster 11-game MLB main slate that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Friday, May 24
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Cubs-Cardinals: Shota Imanaga
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 16.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $11,000
It’s not often we see the most expensive pitcher on the slate also the highest leveraged, but Cubs left-hander Shota Imanaga fits that bill tonight. The Japanese southpaw has been nothing short brilliant to start his MLB career, as he comes into tonight’s action sporting a 0.84 ERA — the lowest mark in history through a pitcher’s first nine career starts. Imanaga also has a spectacular 0.91 WHIP, 58 strikeouts and just nine walks through 53.2 innings. Though his underlying numbers call for a bit of regression, he’s undoubtedly been one of the best pitchers in baseball, and the field isn’t getting to him at all on DraftKings.
Matched up with a Cardinals team that is much more name than substance, Imanaga has plenty of upside in this spot. While there are some weather concerns here, Imanaga looks like one of the top pitchers on the slate if this game is played. Although I’m not completely buying what Imanaga is selling for the long term, the league hasn’t figured him out yet, and until they do, it’s hard not to at least have some interest in him when he’s on a slate.
As of this writing, Imanaga is far and away the top leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 16.2% of the time this slate plays out, but only 3.6% of lineups are projected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Rangers-Twins: Twins
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 4.5%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.1%
Unlike the majority of recent slates where stack ownership has been very spread, the Red Sox, Dodgers and Phillies are projected to get the majority of love tonight. All three of those offenses are in really good spots, which leaves quite a few contrarian spots to target. Minnesota is the best of the bunch, however, and matched up with Rangers right-hander Jose Urena, there’s a lot to like about them.
On many a slate, the Twins would be popular in this spot. Tonight, though, they are just a casualty of a slate filled with enticing stacks. Truth be told, Urena has actually been decent in limited action this season. After coming out of the bullpen for the majority of the year, Urena has pitched OK in three starts since being moved to the rotation. This isn’t to say that I’m afraid to attack Urena or anything, but it might explain the lack of ownership coming into Minnesota. Despite his limited success in three starts, I’m still selling on Urena’s long-term prospects. This is still a pitcher with an xERA over 5.5 since 2021, and the other shoe should drop here sooner rather than later.
As of this writing, the Twins grade out as the top contrarian stack on the board, as they are projected to be the top stack 4.5% of the time this slate plays out but only 2.1% of the field is expected to prioritize them on DraftKings.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Rangers, Brewers, Yankees, Astros, Rockies
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