We’re back with a massive 12-game MLB main that locks at 7:10 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, May 13
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Dodgers-Giants: Jordan Hicks
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 7.2%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,800
Even with 12 games in play, ownership at pitcher is pretty concentrated, with four arms projected to be by far the highest owned on the slate. Jordan Hicks is not one of those pitchers. Coming into tonight averaging 15.8 fantasy points per game, Hicks has been rock solid in his first season in San Francisco. Despite his underlying numbers suggesting some negative regression is coming, there’s a lot to like about him for DFS purposes tonight.
It’s not overly surprising the field isn’t prioritizing Hicks against the Dodgers at a healthy $7,800 price tag. Picking on the Dodgers is never easy, but Yu Darvish and Michael King each just had extremely successful starts against them in San Diego. While that isn’t an indicator of Hicks’ success tonight, it’s possible to shut down this potent Dodgers lineup.
Hicks’ underlying numbers are a cause for pause here; although his 2.30 ERA and .264 WOBA look really good on paper, his .299 xWOBA and 3.48 xERA indicate at least some regression is coming. That said, with less than 1% of lineups expected to roster him, the field is acting as if that regression is definitely coming tonight.
As of this writing, Hicks is the clear top-leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 7.2% of the time, but only 0.5% of the field is expected to click his name.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Dodgers-Giants: Dodgers
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.1%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 3.2%
It’s not often that the top contrarian stack will be matched up with the top contrarian pitcher, but that’s just how the cookie crumbles today. Although it is worth getting overweight on Hicks in large-field GPPs due to his lack of expected ownership, the same can be said about stacking the Dodgers, who aren’t getting nearly the love they should be getting on DraftKings. With only a 0.3% chance of being the top value stack, full stacking the Dodgers will be extremely difficult, and that’s part of the reason they are coming in so underowned.
As laid out so eloquently above, Hicks has been a nice addition to the Giants’ rotation in his first year in the Bay. He hasn’t been as sharp recently, however, and it goes without saying that the Dodgers offense has the highest upside of any team in baseball. While there is certainly no guarantee that Hicks’ negative regression will come tonight, the Dodgers are about as brutal of a matchup as there is, and it’s clear that Hicks hasn’t been nearly as good as his actual numbers would imply.
Although we don’t get any real leverage against Hicks himself considering he’s only projected to be 0.5% owned, the Dodgers are still the clear top contrarian stack on DraftKings. Los Angeles is currently projected to be the top stack 6.1% of the time this slate plays out, and only 3.1% lineups are projected to roster them.
Disclaimer: Do not use Hicks and the Dodgers in the same lineup.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
White Sox, Rockies (ugly but facing a chalky Randy Vasquez), Rangers, Giants, Braves
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