In typical Monday fashion, we have an eight-game MLB slate that locks early at 6:40 p.m. ET on DraftKings. Using Stokastic’s MLB DFS Top Stack and Top Pitchers tools, let’s dive into the player pool to discuss the best MLB DFS contrarian picks and stacks for today’s action.
One of the keys to building a winning MLB DFS lineup is differentiation, so without contrarian picks like the ones below, you’ll struggle to separate from the pack in tournaments. Subscribe today for access to our industry-leading resources, including our lineup generator (available for NFL, NBA, MLB and PGA), our DFS simulation tools (available for NFL, NBA, MLB, PGA and MMA) and our industry-leading projections for every sport.
MLB DFS Contrarian Picks Today: Monday, May 20
MLB DFS Contrarian Pitcher
Angels-Astros: Reid Detmers
Stokastic’s Top 2 Pitcher Rate
DraftKings: 10.3%
DFS Salary
DraftKings: $7,300
Even on an eight-game slate with only 16 arms to choose from, ownership at pitcher is very spread out, with eight pitchers projected to be double-digit owned. Angels left-hander Reid Detmers is not one of those pitchers, and we will go right back to him as the top contrarian arm on DraftKings despite an extremely tough matchup against the Astros.
Considering his recent form and a matchup with Houston, it’s not all that shocking that Detmers isn’t picking up much ownership. Since starting the season averaging 30 DraftKings points through his first three starts, Detmers has taken a nosedive, scoring just 8.02 DraftKings points in the six starts since. We used Detmers in this spot last week in a matchup with the Cardinals, and while he wasn’t great, he’s now $1,000 cheaper and picking up even less ownership. Detmers hasn’t been under $8,000 all season until tonight, and when looking at his underlying numbers, it seems that positive regression is on the horizon.
As of this writing, Detmers is the top leverage pitcher in Stokastic’s Top Pitchers Tool. He is projected to be a top-2 pitcher 10.3% of the time, but only 2.6% of lineups are projected to roster him.
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MLB DFS Contrarian Stack
Orioles-Cardinals: Orioles
Stokastic’s Top Stack Projection
DraftKings: 6.5%
Ownership Projection
DraftKings: 2.8%
Similar to all of the slates we had last week, projected ownership on stacks is extremely spread out on DraftKings. Only two teams are projected for double-digit ownership, and no offense is projected to be over 10.8% owned as a stack. While most teams on this slate are coming in somewhere between 5% and 10% owned, the Orioles are getting completely forgotten about.
Sonny Gray is not impervious to getting hit, and Baltimore absolutely destroys right-handed pitching. After making three of the best pitchers in the American League in Bryce Miller, Luis Castillo and George Kirby all look mediocre this past weekend in Baltimore, the Orioles could make Gray the next righty on the chopping block. While everyone knows about the Orioles’ prowess against righties, Gray is good enough and Baltimore is expensive enough where the field isn’t getting to them at all.
The Orioles currently grade out as the top leverage stack on DraftKings, projected to be the top stack 6.5% of the time this slate plays out but drawing only 2.8% stack ownership.
Other Contrarian Stacks to Consider
Yankees, Diamondbacks, Rays, Marlins
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