Even with the NBA back, it is time to continue our PGA DFS picks series. This week is an interesting one; though we’ll still be providing our Mexico Open DFS picks and core plays for those wanting to find value in various areas.
This week, the TOUR heads south of the border as the Mexico Open serves as the bridge event between the West Coast and Florida swings. Zero golfers inside the top 25 in the world rankings will be participating, making this a wide-open golf tournament.
Course Preview: Vidanta Vallarta
- Par: 71
- Length: 7,456 yards
- Past Winners: Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, Jake Knapp
Vidanta Vallarta features wide fairways and non-penal rough, allowing for aggressive play off the tee. Most players will be hitting driver on nearly every par 4 and par 5.
Winning score expected: -18 to -24
Key player attributes:
- Distance off the tee
- Recent form
- Ability to get hot with the putter
- Success on paspalum greens
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Vidanta Vallarta is a long, par 71 golf course measuring in at 7,456 yards. This will be the fourth straight year this course has hosted this event. In the three prior iterations, bombers have ruled here with past champions consisting of Jon Rahm, Tony Finau, and Jake Knapp.
Wide fairways and non-penal rough clear the way for a true bomber’s paradise. With very little to be afraid of off the tee, this is one of the few events all season where we will see most players hitting driver on every par 4 and par 5. The desired player profile is pretty clear this week. With a winning score expected between -18 and -24, I’ll be searching for longer hitters who have flashed some form of late, who have the ability to get hot with the putter.
A slight bonus will be given to golfers who have had some success on paspalum greens in the past as well. Using the Stokastic PGA Sims Tool, I’ve highlighted the top plays for this week below. Our hole-by-hole simulations evaluate each golfer’s potential outcome, combined with PGA DFS projections. By running simulations of lineups tens of thousands of times, we can pinpoint the top plays. Naturally, the players who appear most frequently in the highest-ROI lineups are the ones I focus on for my portfolio. The Sims Tool is crucial to my weekly DFS strategy, and I highly recommend it for anyone looking to advance their DFS game.
Let’s dive into the core players I will be building my lineups around this week on DraftKings.
PGA DFS Picks: Mexico Open DFS Picks
PGA DFS Picks; Mexico Open DFS Picks: Kurt Kitayama – $10,200
After closing out 2024 with back-to-back top-10 finishes, it’s been a bit of a slow start to 2025 for Kitayama. He has made the cut in three out of four starts so far, but has failed to finish inside the top 30. However, over the last couple of events there have been some signs that his ball-striking is coming to life.
At Waste Management in Phoenix, he gained 2.4 strokes on approach and over a full stroke on the field off the tee. Unfortunately, he lost 3 strokes putting, which resulted in a disappointing 49th-place finish. This week the golf course features paspalum greens, which happens to be the only putting surface where Kitayama has gained strokes over the course of his career.
As one of the longer hitters in this field, Kitayama is set up nicely to attack this wide-open layout at Vidanta Vallarta. In his lone start in this event in 2022, he finished 2nd place, just one shot behind Jon Rahm. With the increased comfort on the greens, I expect Kitayama to be in contention yet again to win this event on Sunday.
Taylor Moore – $9,000
It’s been a great start to 2025 for Moore, who has two finishes inside the top 10 in just five total starts. His most recent top 10 came just a couple of weeks ago at Waste Management, where he gained five shots on the field off the tee, a very impressive number.
An average driving distance of 310 yards has led to a No. 1 ranking in this field in strokes gained off the tee over the last 24 rounds. Given the emphasis on distance and the predictability of success that statistic has had historically at this course, I’ll be building a lot of lineups with Moore as the 2nd man in this week.
PGA DFS Picks; Mexico Open DFS Picks: Kevin Yu – $8,800
Yu is coming off back-to-back finishes inside the top 17, which came at two pretty significant events in the Genesis and the Waste Management. In both events he gained over 5 shots on the field in strokes gained tee to green.
Over the last 24 rounds, he ranks 6th in this field in strokes gained off the tee and top 20 in both birdie or better percentage and bogey avoidance. With an average driving distance of 308 yards, he’s certainly long enough to contend here.
He checks the boxes for me in terms of recent form and distance off the tee and will be holding down the upper 8k range for me on DraftKings this week.
GPP Flier – Aldrich Potgieter – $7,300
With just eight career starts on TOUR, Potgieter is far from a household name. The word ‘far,’ however, is very appropriate when discussing this kid. An average driving distance of 329(!) yards puts him at the top of the list of the longest drivers currently in the world.
His obscene length off the tee was an absolute game-changer at the Farmers Insurance Open hosted at Torrey Pines a few weeks ago, where he logged a 15th-place finish after being in contention for most of the week. I’ll take a flier on the longest hitter, at a course that dramatically favors distance, at an ownership projection of single digits this week.
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