Summertime is heating up, and that can only mean one thing: Best Ball drafters around the world are starting to reach on quarterbacks in the hopes of filling out that tournament-winning stack. Well, here at Stokastic we’re all about giving you the resources you need to avoid such pitfalls, and today, with the help of our Best Ball rankings, we are going to break down those quarterbacks who are getting a little too much love according to their ADP. Here are the most overvalued Best Ball quarterbacks for 2024 — guys like Brock Purdy.
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Overvalued Best Ball Quarterbacks for 2024
ADPs come from Underdog Fantasy. You can find ADP for Drafters and DraftKings in our FREE Best Ball QB rankings, but the degree to which these quarterbacks are overvalued will depend on your platform.
Brock Purdy: QB13, ADP 113.7
This isn’t a massive gap, and it actually makes me a little nervous because Purdy set records for adjusted yards per attempt last year at 9.9. You could also make the case that the 49ers improved their weapons with the addition of Ricky Pearsall in the first round. Purdy himself was eighth in fantasy points per game, and that was while going over 300 yards just five times.
He has really good skill position players around him, but the offensive line is a slight concern. Despite having Trent Williams, Pro Football Focus ranked the 49ers line 24th, and it is returning the same unit that underwhelmed last year. Still, Purdy put up a good season in a run-first offense, so maybe the offensive line is not as bad as PFF is ranking it.
The real issue with Purdy, however, is there are players who simply have more upside in this range — teams that aren’t going to be as run-heavy as San Francisco. For example, right behind Purdy is Tua Tagovailoa, Trevor Lawrence is just ahead of him, both of whom are in pass-first offenses. And that’s without considering Kirk Cousins, who enters a new offense that will pass the ball incessantly. So it’s not necessarily about Purdy so much as the guys around him in this range.
Lastly, Purdy is very easy to stack given the wealth of good players on the 49ers. You run into a familiar stack if you do so, and though you should definitely be considering this strategy, a lot of other people will also notice how easy it is to take Christian McCaffrey at No. 1, Deebo Samuel and/or Brandon Aiyuk at the Round 2/3 turn, and then Purdy a handful of rounds later. This is going to be a chalky stack in Best Ball, and Purdy offers little on the ground.
Jared Goff: QB20, ADP 127.5
Goff is being drafted in a range where he is at his absolute ceiling. Detroit has been able to coax out some awesome play from him in a run-first offense, as he finished seventh in adjusted yards per attempt (7.7). The problem is that he was still only 15th in fantasy points per game and had only five games with 300-plus yards passing.
Now the receiving unit for the Lions is worse, having lost Josh Reynolds to the Broncos and relying now on Jameson Williams as the WR2. Some people are holding a candle for Williams this year, but he certainly has not lived up to the first-round pick through his first couple NFL seasons. There were some extenuating circumstances — a suspension and an ACL injury — but bottom line, I’m not sure if Williams is good.
The Lions are making an enormous bet on Williams behind Amon-Ra St. Brown and Sam LaPorta, and they have absolutely nothing else behind him. They vastly exceeded expectations by going 12-5 last year, and this year they made improvements on defense after being more of a shootout team in 2023. That made Goff more of a high-volume passer than he typically wants to play.
This is all to say that there are a lot of paths to Goff under-performing this season: The offense, his inability to run and history of being a lesser fantasy asset compared to his peers like Matthew Stafford and Cousins. There is too much downside here for Goff on a team that has just as good a chance at finishing worse than its 10.5 total as finishing above it.
Derek Carr: QB28, ADP 200.6
I struggle to even say he’s “overvalued” given how late he is going, but one could make the case Carr deserves to go even lower than where we currently rank him.
Carr has a long history of being a below-average quarterback. The Saints did make some changes to the offense, namely bringing in Klint Kubiak as offensive coordinator to try to fix him, but Kubiak’s most recent job was with the 49ers and I don’t expect this Saints offense to be revolutionary in terms of how much it throws.
Carr was 14th in adjusted yards per game, yet he was 29th in fantasy points per game. That’s the problem with Carr. The job security is good and he’s likely to play a ton of games, but he has no upside. How many usable weeks is he going to provide, barring injury? Also, the Saints added nothing around him — it’s still going to be Chris Olave, A.T. Perry and Rashid Shaheed. And we haven’t mentioned Taysom Hill, who is going to steal any red zone rushing chances that Carr may have had.
New Orleans is projected to be below average at 7.5 wins, and this is a disastrous situation for Carr with almost no upside. I would rather spend on a player with more upside simply be being unknown, someone like Russell Wilson, Bryce Young or one of the rookies like J.J. McCarthy or Bo Nix.
