NFL Win Projections 2026: The Teams That Moved Before Week 1
By Jake Hari
September 3, 2026 · Updated September 7, 2026
Which NFL teams are projected to win the most games in 2026? The Rams lead Kalshi's win-total boards at 11.7 expected wins as of September 6, with Detroit at 10.6, and Arizona (4.3) and Miami (4.4) at the bottom; the full 32-team board is below.
The Quick Answer
The Rams sit on top at 11.7 expected wins, with Arizona at the bottom at 4.3 and Miami just above at 4.4. Since August 18, Dallas and Tampa Bay have risen the most, and Atlanta, Las Vegas and Green Bay have given back the most. For the Week 1 slate: trust the game script where the season board and the weekly market agree, which is most of Sunday, and let ownership decide how far to lean in the one game where they argue, Washington at Philadelphia.
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The Board
Expected wins is the sum of a team's win-threshold contract midpoints on Kalshi, fetched September 6. The change column is the move since the full board was priced on August 18, and the Week 1 column is the slate as posted September 3 and unchanged since.
| Team | Expected wins | Since Aug. 18 | Week 1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Los Angeles Rams | 11.7 | +0.3 | vs. SF, Thu. (Melbourne) |
| Detroit Lions | 10.6 | — | vs. NO |
| Seattle Seahawks | 10.6 | +0.2 | vs. NE, Wed. night |
| Buffalo Bills | 10.5 | -0.2 | at HOU |
| Baltimore Ravens | 10.3 | -0.2 | at IND |
| Philadelphia Eagles | 10.2 | +0.1 | vs. WAS |
| Cincinnati Bengals | 10.2 | +0.2 | vs. TB |
| Houston Texans | 10.1 | +0.1 | vs. BUF |
| Los Angeles Chargers | 10.0 | +0.1 | vs. ARI |
| Denver Broncos | 9.9 | +0.3 | at KC, Mon. night |
| Kansas City Chiefs | 9.9 | +0.1 | vs. DEN, Mon. night |
| New England Patriots | 9.7 | -0.1 | at SEA, Wed. night |
| San Francisco 49ers | 9.7 | -0.1 | at LAR, Thu. (Melbourne) |
| Dallas Cowboys | 9.7 | +0.4 | at NYG, Sun. night |
| Jacksonville Jaguars | 9.4 | +0.3 | vs. CLE |
| Green Bay Packers | 9.4 | -0.3 | at MIN |
| Chicago Bears | 9.3 | — | at CAR |
| Minnesota Vikings | 8.9 | — | vs. GB |
| Tampa Bay Buccaneers | 8.5 | +0.4 | at CIN |
| Pittsburgh Steelers | 8.4 | -0.1 | vs. ATL |
| Indianapolis Colts | 8.2 | +0.3 | vs. BAL |
| New Orleans Saints | 8.0 | +0.1 | at DET |
| New York Giants | 7.6 | — | vs. DAL, Sun. night |
| Carolina Panthers | 7.1 | -0.2 | vs. CHI |
| Washington Commanders | 7.1 | -0.2 | at PHI |
| Atlanta Falcons | 6.9 | -0.3 | at PIT |
| Tennessee Titans | 6.2 | -0.2 | vs. NYJ |
| Las Vegas Raiders | 6.1 | -0.3 | vs. MIA |
| New York Jets | 6.0 | +0.2 | at TEN |
| Cleveland Browns | 5.7 | +0.2 | at JAX |
| Miami Dolphins | 4.4 | -0.1 | at LV |
| Arizona Cardinals | 4.3 | — | at LAC |
Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated event-contract exchange whose sports contracts are in active federal litigation (on August 28, 2026 the Ninth Circuit ruled Nevada can regulate them as sports bets); it requires users to be 18+ under its own platform policy, and availability varies by state. These are model estimates, not predictions of fact and not financial advice.
Who Moved Since August
Dallas and Tampa Bay have climbed the most on the board, with the Rams, Jacksonville, Denver and Indianapolis each adding about a third of a win. Dallas's climb came on the heaviest trading of any ladder on the board, a near tie with the Giants', so it is the move least likely to be noise. Atlanta, Las Vegas and Green Bay gave back the most, and Atlanta's drop came on about 40% of Dallas's volume. Baltimore and Buffalo slipped a little from the top tier. Dallas plays Sunday night at the Giants, outside the main slate; Tampa Bay, Jacksonville and Las Vegas all play on the Sunday main slate, which is why they anchor the reads below.
Three Week 1 Reads
Every Week 1 game's live price, all 16 of them, sits on our Week 1 predictions board. These three reads come off that board and the season board together.
Buffalo at Houston is a coin flip between two 10-win teams. The weekly market cannot separate them, and the total sits mid-board. That makes it one of only two games where a running back's late carries are not at the mercy of the spread, Green Bay at Minnesota being the other, so James Cook and a quarterback stack with a bring-back are the plays. The stacking guide covers the math.
Arizona at the Chargers is the widest gap on both boards. Trust the script: Omarion Hampton and the Chargers defense on the favorite's side, Trey McBride as the Arizona name who inherits the catch-up targets. Cleveland at Jacksonville is the cheaper copy of the same shape.
Tampa Bay at Cincinnati is the highest total on the slate, with a catch. One of the board's two biggest risers walks into the game expected to score the most, and Baker Mayfield at $5,900 on DraftKings costs a thousand dollars less than Joe Burrow at $6,900. Both passing games carry injury tags as of September 6, so either stack is a Sunday-morning decision. Miami at Las Vegas, where one of the board's biggest fallers plays, shares Cleveland-Jacksonville's low total with a spread of about a field goal instead of a touchdown, so there is no blowout script to sell and it can be left alone.
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Which Game The Boards Argue About
Washington at Philadelphia is the third-widest season gap on the slate, and the weekly market prices it as a division game with a spread under a touchdown. Detroit gets a bigger spread over New Orleans for a smaller gap. When the markets split that far on one game, the cheaper read is the one the field is not building: Jalen Hurts with Saquon Barkley will be the popular stack, and Jayden Daniels at $6,500 on DraftKings is the leverage bring-back. How far to lean is an ownership question, and that number lands in the NFL DataHub as the slate posts.
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