Below you can see Stokastic’s NASCAR DFS Projections for DraftKings and FanDuel. If you’re interested in other premium content, head over to Stokastic’s NASCAR Ownership Projections, NASCAR DFS Projections, and Stokastic’s Top Driver Tool, which gives the probability that each driver will end up in a winning DFS lineup. For FREE DraftKings and FanDuel NASCAR DFS content, including FREE DFS Strategy shows, NASCAR DFS cheat sheets and picks, check out our NASCAR home page!
How to Use NASCAR DFS Projections
Update: Projections now give a breakdown for points scored by finishing position + place differential (Placement Points) and laps led + fastest laps (Dominator Points). For FanDuel a lot of points are given to drivers for completing laps, but that’s not useful for DFS because to win you need your drivers to finish the race. I suggest using my version of the projections without those points included for building your fantasy lineups. A full breakdown of scoring categories is listed in the “Detailed” tab.
NASCAR DFS Projections
DraftKings
Name | Projection | Starting Position | DK Salary | DK Value | Odds to Win | Placement Points | Dominator Points | PP/$1k | DP/$1k |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Projection | Starting Position | DK Salary | DK Value | Odds to Win | Placement Points | Dominator Points | PP/$1k | DP/$1k |
Tyler Reddick | 56.19 | 1 | 10,300 | 5.46 | 8.75 | 27.27 | 30.72 | 2.65 | 2.98 |
Brad Keselowski | 40.99 | 2 | 9,200 | 4.46 | 14.92 | 25.09 | 16.99 | 2.73 | 1.85 |
Chris Buescher | 40.14 | 3 | 7,800 | 5.15 | 14.92 | 25.99 | 15.15 | 3.33 | 1.94 |
Ty Gibbs | 28.13 | 4 | 8,500 | 3.31 | 41.46 | 20.58 | 8.12 | 2.42 | 0.96 |
William Byron | 44.95 | 5 | 11,000 | 4.09 | 10.24 | 29.93 | 16.07 | 2.72 | 1.46 |
Kyle Larson | 54.69 | 6 | 11,300 | 4.84 | 5.60 | 34.37 | 21.66 | 3.04 | 1.92 |
Denny Hamlin | 51.53 | 7 | 11,500 | 4.48 | 6.58 | 34.04 | 18.67 | 2.96 | 1.62 |
Bubba Wallace | 23.60 | 8 | 8,200 | 2.88 | 71.48 | 20.04 | 3.85 | 2.44 | 0.47 |
Ross Chastain | 31.36 | 9 | 9,600 | 3.27 | 28.53 | 25.89 | 5.89 | 2.70 | 0.61 |
Martin Truex Jr | 44.64 | 10 | 10,700 | 4.17 | 10.24 | 33.46 | 11.96 | 3.13 | 1.12 |
Kyle Busch | 33.40 | 11 | 9,400 | 3.55 | 28.53 | 27.81 | 6.02 | 2.96 | 0.64 |
Christopher Bell | 38.43 | 12 | 10,000 | 3.84 | 19.85 | 31.25 | 7.72 | 3.13 | 0.77 |
Chase Briscoe | 20.78 | 13 | 6,800 | 3.06 | 161.85 | 18.97 | 1.96 | 2.79 | 0.29 |
Joey Logano | 32.78 | 14 | 8,800 | 3.72 | 41.46 | 28.34 | 4.79 | 3.22 | 0.54 |
Todd Gilliland | 14.11 | 15 | 5,500 | 2.57 | 211.07 | 13.33 | 0.85 | 2.42 | 0.15 |
Michael McDowell | 14.98 | 16 | 6,500 | 2.30 | 211.07 | 14.28 | 0.76 | 2.20 | 0.12 |
Ryan Blaney | 35.69 | 17 | 9,000 | 3.97 | 41.46 | 31.38 | 4.66 | 3.49 | 0.52 |
Alex Bowman | 29.58 | 18 | 8,000 | 3.70 | 92.85 | 27.12 | 2.68 | 3.39 | 0.33 |
Daniel Suarez | 17.76 | 19 | 7,000 | 2.54 | 211.07 | 17.18 | 0.63 | 2.45 | 0.09 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 18.34 | 20 | 6,600 | 2.78 | 483.79 | 17.72 | 0.68 | 2.68 | 0.10 |
Carson Hocevar | 13.86 | 21 | 5,800 | 2.39 | 632.54 | 13.61 | 0.27 | 2.35 | 0.05 |
John H. Nemechek | 14.78 | 22 | 6,000 | 2.46 | 632.54 | 14.54 | 0.26 | 2.42 | 0.04 |
Austin Dillon | 21.34 | 23 | 6,300 | 3.39 | 483.79 | 20.76 | 0.64 | 3.29 | 0.10 |
Corey LaJoie | 17.19 | 24 | 5,700 | 3.02 | 632.54 | 16.87 | 0.35 | 2.96 | 0.06 |
Austin Cindric | 23.30 | 25 | 6,200 | 3.76 | 483.79 | 22.73 | 0.62 | 3.67 | 0.10 |
Ryan Preece | 18.68 | 26 | 5,900 | 3.17 | 1,113.79 | 18.44 | 0.27 | 3.13 | 0.05 |
Zane Smith | 7.76 | 27 | 5,600 | 1.39 | 3,365.12 | 7.76 | 0.00 | 1.39 | 0.00 |
Justin Haley | 16.50 | 28 | 5,300 | 3.11 | 1,457.58 | 16.40 | 0.12 | 3.09 | 0.02 |
Daniel Hemric | 14.43 | 29 | 5,200 | 2.78 | 2,963.01 | 14.35 | 0.09 | 2.76 | 0.02 |
Erik Jones | 43.85 | 30 | 7,500 | 5.85 | 71.48 | 40.85 | 3.25 | 5.45 | 0.43 |
Chase Elliott | 51.96 | 31 | 9,800 | 5.30 | 32.14 | 46.91 | 5.44 | 4.79 | 0.56 |
Derek Kraus | 12.98 | 32 | 5,100 | 2.54 | 3,365.12 | 12.97 | 0.01 | 2.54 | 0.00 |
Josh Berry | 32.47 | 33 | 6,700 | 4.85 | 211.07 | 31.23 | 1.34 | 4.66 | 0.20 |
Kaz Grala | 15.46 | 34 | 5,000 | 3.09 | 3,365.12 | 15.41 | 0.05 | 3.08 | 0.01 |
Harrison Burton | 27.74 | 35 | 5,400 | 5.14 | 1,113.79 | 27.45 | 0.32 | 5.08 | 0.06 |
Noah Gragson | 51.10 | 36 | 7,200 | 7.10 | 61.17 | 47.68 | 3.71 | 6.62 | 0.51 |
FanDuel
Name | Projection | Projection-Laps | Starting Position | FD Salary | FD Value | NoLapsValue | Odds to Win | Placement Points | Dominator Points |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Projection | Projection-Laps | Starting Position | FD Salary | FD Value | NoLapsValue | Odds to Win | Placement Points | Dominator Points |
Tyler Reddick | 61.81 | 33.88 | 1 | 12,500 | 4.94 | 2.71 | 8.75 | 28.78 | 5.09 |
Brad Keselowski | 57.14 | 29.34 | 2 | 9,500 | 6.01 | 3.09 | 14.92 | 26.90 | 2.44 |
Chris Buescher | 57.18 | 29.38 | 3 | 8,200 | 6.97 | 3.58 | 14.92 | 27.32 | 2.06 |
Ty Gibbs | 51.61 | 24.10 | 4 | 8,500 | 6.07 | 2.84 | 41.46 | 23.12 | 0.98 |
William Byron | 59.91 | 32.02 | 5 | 13,000 | 4.61 | 2.46 | 10.24 | 29.78 | 2.24 |
Kyle Larson | 64.28 | 36.20 | 6 | 14,000 | 4.59 | 2.59 | 5.60 | 32.91 | 3.29 |
Denny Hamlin | 63.16 | 35.17 | 7 | 13,500 | 4.68 | 2.60 | 6.58 | 32.40 | 2.76 |
Bubba Wallace | 49.58 | 22.21 | 8 | 7,800 | 6.36 | 2.85 | 71.48 | 21.83 | 0.38 |
Ross Chastain | 54.17 | 26.52 | 9 | 11,000 | 4.92 | 2.41 | 28.53 | 25.86 | 0.66 |
Martin Truex Jr | 60.75 | 32.86 | 10 | 12,000 | 5.06 | 2.74 | 10.24 | 31.22 | 1.64 |
Kyle Busch | 55.11 | 27.49 | 11 | 10,000 | 5.51 | 2.75 | 28.53 | 26.81 | 0.68 |
Christopher Bell | 57.78 | 30.03 | 12 | 11,500 | 5.02 | 2.61 | 19.85 | 29.09 | 0.94 |
Chase Briscoe | 47.36 | 20.13 | 13 | 6,200 | 7.64 | 3.25 | 161.85 | 19.98 | 0.15 |
Joey Logano | 54.57 | 27.02 | 14 | 8,000 | 6.82 | 3.38 | 41.46 | 26.51 | 0.51 |
Todd Gilliland | 42.70 | 15.56 | 15 | 4,000 | 10.67 | 3.89 | 211.07 | 15.50 | 0.06 |
Michael McDowell | 43.18 | 16.02 | 16 | 6,000 | 7.20 | 2.67 | 211.07 | 15.97 | 0.05 |
Ryan Blaney | 56.08 | 28.51 | 17 | 9,000 | 6.23 | 3.17 | 41.46 | 28.03 | 0.48 |
Alex Bowman | 52.28 | 24.96 | 18 | 7,500 | 6.97 | 3.33 | 92.85 | 24.74 | 0.23 |
Daniel Suarez | 44.56 | 17.43 | 19 | 6,500 | 6.86 | 2.68 | 211.07 | 17.40 | 0.03 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 44.55 | 17.60 | 20 | 5,800 | 7.68 | 3.04 | 483.79 | 17.56 | 0.04 |
Carson Hocevar | 41.22 | 14.42 | 21 | 5,500 | 7.50 | 2.62 | 632.54 | 14.41 | 0.01 |
John H. Nemechek | 41.68 | 14.87 | 22 | 4,800 | 8.68 | 3.10 | 632.54 | 14.86 | 0.01 |
Austin Dillon | 46.09 | 19.13 | 23 | 5,200 | 8.86 | 3.68 | 483.79 | 19.09 | 0.03 |
Corey LaJoie | 43.02 | 16.11 | 24 | 4,200 | 10.24 | 3.83 | 632.54 | 16.09 | 0.02 |
Austin Cindric | 47.04 | 20.10 | 25 | 5,000 | 9.41 | 4.02 | 483.79 | 20.07 | 0.03 |
Ryan Preece | 43.51 | 16.80 | 26 | 4,500 | 9.67 | 3.73 | 1,113.79 | 16.78 | 0.01 |
Zane Smith | 35.40 | 8.94 | 27 | 2,500 | 14.16 | 3.58 | 3,365.12 | 8.94 | 0.00 |
Justin Haley | 41.55 | 14.89 | 28 | 3,000 | 13.85 | 4.96 | 1,457.58 | 14.88 | 0.00 |
Daniel Hemric | 39.66 | 13.21 | 29 | 2,500 | 15.86 | 5.28 | 2,963.01 | 13.20 | 0.00 |
Erik Jones | 59.72 | 32.28 | 30 | 7,200 | 8.29 | 4.48 | 71.48 | 31.98 | 0.30 |
Chase Elliott | 64.38 | 36.73 | 31 | 10,500 | 6.13 | 3.50 | 32.14 | 36.15 | 0.58 |
Derek Kraus | 38.07 | 11.59 | 32 | 2,000 | 19.04 | 5.80 | 3,365.12 | 11.59 | 0.00 |
Josh Berry | 51.66 | 24.56 | 33 | 6,800 | 7.60 | 3.61 | 211.07 | 24.44 | 0.12 |
Kaz Grala | 39.41 | 12.92 | 34 | 2,000 | 19.70 | 6.46 | 3,365.12 | 12.91 | 0.00 |
Harrison Burton | 48.02 | 21.30 | 35 | 3,500 | 13.72 | 6.09 | 1,113.79 | 21.29 | 0.01 |
Noah Gragson | 63.40 | 35.94 | 36 | 7,000 | 9.06 | 5.13 | 61.17 | 35.59 | 0.36 |
Detailed
Name | Avg finish | DKFinishPoints | FDFinishPoints | Place Differential | Fastest Laps | Laps Led |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Name | Avg finish | DKFinishPoints | FDFinishPoints | Place Differential | Fastest Laps | Laps Led |
Tyler Reddick | 8.8 | 35.0 | 32.7 | -7.8 | 36.0 | 50.9 |
Brad Keselowski | 10.3 | 33.3 | 31.0 | -8.3 | 21.8 | 24.4 |
Chris Buescher | 10.3 | 33.3 | 31.0 | -7.3 | 20.0 | 20.6 |
Ty Gibbs | 13.3 | 29.9 | 27.8 | -9.3 | 11.3 | 9.8 |
William Byron | 9.4 | 34.3 | 32.0 | -4.4 | 20.9 | 22.4 |
Kyle Larson | 7.8 | 36.2 | 33.8 | -1.8 | 26.9 | 32.9 |
Denny Hamlin | 8.4 | 35.4 | 33.1 | -1.4 | 23.5 | 27.6 |
Bubba Wallace | 15.5 | 27.5 | 25.6 | -7.5 | 5.8 | 3.8 |
Ross Chastain | 13.2 | 30.1 | 28.0 | -4.2 | 8.5 | 6.6 |
Martin Truex Jr | 10.1 | 33.5 | 31.3 | -0.1 | 15.7 | 16.4 |
Kyle Busch | 13.2 | 30.0 | 27.9 | -2.2 | 8.6 | 6.8 |
Christopher Bell | 12.1 | 31.3 | 29.1 | -0.1 | 10.8 | 9.4 |
Chase Briscoe | 18.4 | 24.3 | 22.7 | -5.4 | 3.2 | 1.5 |
Joey Logano | 14.4 | 28.7 | 26.7 | -0.4 | 7.0 | 5.1 |
Todd Gilliland | 22.0 | 20.3 | 19.0 | -7.0 | 1.4 | 0.6 |
Michael McDowell | 22.0 | 20.3 | 19.0 | -6.0 | 1.3 | 0.5 |
Ryan Blaney | 14.4 | 28.8 | 26.7 | 2.6 | 6.9 | 4.8 |
Alex Bowman | 16.9 | 26.0 | 24.2 | 1.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 |
Daniel Suarez | 22.1 | 20.3 | 18.9 | -3.1 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
Ricky Stenhouse Jr | 22.3 | 20.0 | 18.7 | -2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
Carson Hocevar | 24.7 | 17.3 | 16.3 | -3.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
John H. Nemechek | 24.8 | 17.3 | 16.2 | -2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Austin Dillon | 22.3 | 20.0 | 18.7 | 0.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
Corey LaJoie | 24.6 | 17.5 | 16.4 | -0.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
Austin Cindric | 22.3 | 20.0 | 18.7 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
Ryan Preece | 24.8 | 17.3 | 16.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
Zane Smith | 30.4 | 11.1 | 10.6 | -3.4 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Justin Haley | 26.7 | 15.1 | 14.3 | 1.3 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Daniel Hemric | 28.2 | 13.5 | 12.8 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.0 |
Erik Jones | 16.0 | 26.9 | 25.0 | 14.0 | 5.0 | 3.0 |
Chase Elliott | 13.6 | 29.6 | 27.5 | 17.4 | 8.0 | 5.8 |
Derek Kraus | 30.3 | 11.2 | 10.7 | 1.7 | 0.0 | 0.0 |
Josh Berry | 22.1 | 20.3 | 19.0 | 10.9 | 2.1 | 1.2 |
Kaz Grala | 30.1 | 11.5 | 10.9 | 3.9 | 0.1 | 0.0 |
Harrison Burton | 24.8 | 17.3 | 16.2 | 10.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
Noah Gragson | 15.7 | 27.3 | 25.4 | 20.3 | 5.6 | 3.6 |